Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with soybeans steady to $.05 higher, meal was up $3 – $6, while oil is 30 – 60 lower. Fairly tight range for Nov-23 soybeans, with support at yesterday’s low of $13.15. Secondary support is the 50 day MA, currently $13. Support for Oct-23 oil is at this week’s low of 60.25. StoneX forecasts US soybean production at 4.173 bil. bu. with a yield of 50.5 bpa, down 127 mil. from the July-23 USDA est. Export sales at 100 mil. bu., 97 mil. – 2023/24 MY, were above expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.942 bil. are down 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. Census export data from June-23 is out next Tues. Aug. 8th. New crop commitments surged to 297 mil. bu., still down 47% from YA, however the gap has been narrowing in recent weeks as US prices have dipped below SA for fall shipment. China/unknown were buyers of 89 mil. bu. of new crop. In addition this AM the USDA announced the sale of another 134k tons (5 mil. bu.) of new crop to China. Meal sales at 347k tons, roughly ½ old, ½ new crop, were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 3.5%. Celeres is forecasting new crop Brazilian production at a record 166 mmt, compared to the USDA forecast of 163 mmt. US soybean area in drought declined 2% to 51%.
CORN
Prices closed $.06 – $.08 lower making new lows into the close. This was the 8th consecutive lower close for Dec-23. Next support is the July low of $4.81. Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable for crop development over the next week to 10 days. Healthy rains are forecast for much of the nation’s midsection with the exception being northern MN and ND, along with the southern plains. Extended periods of above normal temperatures are limited to TX and the southern Delta region. Export sales were only 18 mil. bu. with 14 mil. being new crop. Old crop commitments are down 34% from YA, in line with the USDA forecast of down 33%. New crop commitments have reached 205 mil. bu. down 34% from YA, and the lowest in 4 years. US corn prices remains at a premium to SA thru Nov. StoneX forecasts US corn production at 15.274 bil. bu. with a yield of 177 bpa, down 46 mil. from the July-23 USDA est. A Ukrainian grain trade group raised their corn production forecast to 26.9 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 25 mmt. US corn area in drought fell 2% to 57%. Celeres is forecasting new crop Brazilian production at a record 139 mmt, compared to the USDA forecast of 129 mmt. Mexico’s Deputy Ag. Minister claims the US rejected a request to jointly research the health impacts of GMO corn. The US is prepared to take Mexico to a dispute panel under the USMCA trade pact for their proposed ban on GMO corn. Both sides have until Aug. 16th to settle the dispute before a trade panel can be invoked. The BAGE reports Argentine corn harvest has reached 73%, vs. 81% YA and historical average of 88%.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes with KC down $.18 – $.20, MGEX down $.12 – $.15, while Chicago was $.08 – $.13 lower. Support for Dec-23 KC is at the June low of $7.76 ¾. Dec-23 MGEX closed below support at both the 50 and 100 day MA’s. Next support is the July low at $8.16 ½. Exports at 16 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments are down 29% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 4.5%. Shipments are actually up 4%. Japan bought just over 86k mt of US and Canadian food grade wheat. The Ukrainian grain trade group raised their wheat production forecast to 20.2 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 17.5 mmt. US winter wheat area in drought rose 2% to 49%, while spring wheat areas in drought rose 1% to 44%. Reports overnight that India’s Govt. may be in private negotiations to purchase 9 mmt of Russian wheat to shore up domestic reserves and combat food inflation. This is potentially very significant for global wheat trade as India was expected to be a modest exporter. The BAGE reports Argentina’s wheat crop is 99% planted with 24% of the crop in G/E condition, 64% fair, while 12% is rated poor. Media reports that China will be sending a special envoy to this weekend’s peace summit in Saudi Arabia. The goal of the summit is for ending the Ukraine/Russia war or at minimum reopen the Black Sea Grain Corridor.
See more market commentary here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
