Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
As expected there were minimal changes to the US balance sheets in today’s USDA WASDE update. Global inventories offered some surprises which were bearish for corn and wheat, while neutral to supportive for soybeans. Back to monitoring developments in the Middle East and US planting weather. Corn prices turned lower ahead of today’s USDA data and fell to new lows shortly after their release. Price closed $.01-$.03 lower while holding just above yesterday’s lows. Early strength tied to higher energy prices didn’t hold as RBOB futures finished near unchanged. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 57 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 52 mmt. Harvest has reached 22%. US corn acres in drought plunged 15% to 29%.
- US ending stocks left unchanged at 2.127 bil. bu. a 7-year high
- The Ave. Farm price was raised $.05 to $4.15 bu.
- Global stocks rose 2 mmt to 294.8 mmt, above expectations of no change
- No changes to production in SA, up .8 mmt in South Africa
SOYBEANS
Prices closed slightly higher across the complex with soybeans $.01-$.03 higher, meal was up $2-$4 while oil was up 30-35 points. Spreads firmed across the complex. May-26 beans remain stuck between $11.40-$11.80. Spot crush margins rebounded $.07 ½ to $2.78 bu. while bean oil PV slipped to 51.6%. While energy/war headlines will continue to drive price volatility, the markets focus will likely begin to shift to the US planting season and Pres. Trump’s trip to China in mid-May. Chinese weapons supplied to Iran could complicate negotiations. The BAGE kept Argentine production at 48.5 mmt, just above USDA’s 48 mmt forecast. US soybean acres in drought plunged 13% to 31%.
- US ending stocks were left unchanged at 350 mil. bu.
- The Ave. Farm price was raised $.10 to $10.30 bu.
- Soybean crush was raised 35 mil. bu. which was offset by 35 mil. bu. cut to exports
- Domestic bean oil usage rose 300 mil. lbs., while imports cut 50 mil.
- No change to exports or usage for biofuel production
- Domestic meal usage rose 800k tons to absorb higher supplies from higher crush
- Global stocks slipped .5 mmt to 124.8 mmt, nearly 1 mmt below expectations
- No changes to Brazil or Argentine production, Paraguay was up .5 mmt to 12 mmt
- Brazilian exports rose 1 mmt to 115 mmt
WHEAT
Prices were $.05-$.06 lower across the 3 classes. The July-26 contracts all carved out fresh 1-month lows. Next support for CGO July-26 is the March low at $5.74. KC July-26 held support at its 50 day MA at $6.01. Speculative traders appear to be quickly unwinding their recently established long position.
- US ending stocks rose 7 mil. bu. to 938 mil. slightly above expectations and a 6-year high
- The Ave. Farm price was raised $.05 to $5.00 per bu.
- Global stocks spiked over 6 mmt to 283 mmt vs. expectations of no change
- Production rose while usage was lowered
- EU production rose 1.1 mmt while Russia was up .8 mmt.
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