Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices rebounded late closing only $.01-$.02 lower. Nearby spreads firmed despite today being the day 1 of the Goldman roll. The 50/100 day MA’s near $4.48 ¼ now serve as resistance for the May-26 contract. Support is at the March low at $4.40 ¼. Support for Dec-26 is at $4.67. Ethanol production rebounded to 1,116 tbd, or 328 mil. gallons in the week ended Fri. April 3rd, up from 316 mil. the previous week and 9% above YA. Production was above expectations. There was 110 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 15.73 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.4 pace needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.60 bil. In the MY to date there has been 3.289 bil. bu. used, or 15.3 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.584 bil. Ethanol stocks ticked up to 26.1 mil. barrels, below the 27 mb from YA. Implied gasoline demand slipped 1.4% to 8.564 tbd, however was up 1.6% from YA. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range between 35-65 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans ranging from $.01-$.04 higher, meal was up $2-$3 while oil was down just over $.02 lb. Bean spreads firmed while product spreads weakened. For now May-26 beans rejected trade below its 50-day MA. Support for Nov-26 beans is at $11.27 ½. May-26 meal closed just above its 50 and 100 day MA’s while holding within yesterday’s range. May-26 oil gapped lower trading limit down at one point before bouncing. A last-minute agreement between the US/Iran led the Trump Admin. to suspend attacks on Iran’s infrastructure for 2 weeks. As part of the agreement Iran has reopened the Straits of Hormuz triggering a plunge in global energy prices. Despite the reopening vessel traffic has been slow to increase as shipping activity remains a very small fraction of pre-war levels. Negotiations for a long-term peace settlement are expected to start Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. Crush margins plunged $.24 to $2.70 ½ bu. while bean oil PV fell 1% from yesterday’s all-time high at 52.8%.
WHEAT
Prices plunged $.12-$.18 across the 3 classes. Sharply lower energy prices along with forecasts for needed rain across the S. Plains triggered the price collapse. CGO July-26 held support at its 50-day MA at $5.86 ½. Support for KC July-26 is at $6.00. Argus raised their 2026 Russian production est. 2.2 mmt to 88.7 mmt, still below the 90.4 mmt from YA. Rusagrotrans estimates Russia will export 3.7 mmt of wheat in April, well above the 2.4 mmt shipped in April-25. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range between 8-22 mil. bu. Look for tomorrow’s updated drought monitor to start showing an easing of drought conditions across winter wheat areas.
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