Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices were steady to $.02 lower while spreads weakened. May-26 has MA support near $4.48. Corn used for ethanol production in Feb-26 at 425 mil. bu. was slightly above expectations of 422 mil. YTD usage is down less than .5% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 3%. I look for a modest cut to corn usage for ethanol. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast at 57 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 52 mmt. They report harvest progress at 19%. US exports at 49 mil. bu. last week were in line with expectations and bring old crop commitments to 2.757 bil. bu. up 29% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico/Japan – 7 mil. bu. each and Taiwan – 5 mil. Census exports from Feb-26 at just over 266 mil. bu. brought YTD shipments to 1.627 bil. up 35% from YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices across the complex were mixed with beans $.02-$.05 lower in choppy 2 sided trade. Inside trade for May-26 beans in a surprisingly narrow range. Meal was off $3-$4 while oil was 120-180 points higher. Inside trade for May-26 meal as it held support above its 100 day MA $313.40. May-26 oil closed near session highs just below this week’s peak at 69.68. Agricultural prices were not able to hold overnight strength tied to surging energy prices. Pres. Trump’s speech to the US public didn’t provide specifics on when the war with Iran would end, nor for the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. Spot crush margins surged $.19 to $2.88 ½ bu. the highest since Oct-22, while bean oil PV bounced back to its all-time high at 52.2%. Census crush in Feb-26 at 214 mil. bu. was a record high for the month while the daily crush rate at 7.64 mbd was a new all-time high. In the first half of the 25/26 MY cumulative crush is up 8.2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.3%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.01 to $.05 higher. Spreads were mixed and little changed. CGO May-26 held support above yesterday’s low at $5.93 ¼. Export sales at 11 mil. bu. (1 mil. – 25/26 MY, 10 – 26/27) were at the low end of expectations and brought old crop commitments to 886 mil. bu. up 14% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Commitments represent 98% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 94%.
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