Ag Market View for Apr 3.24


Prices were $.03 – $.05 higher today with most contracts experiencing an inside trading session.  Spreads rebounded a touch.  Dec-24 corn spent much of the day consolidating nearly its 50 day MA at $4.69 ½.  Today’s 8-14 day forecast shows a shift to an above normal temperature, below normal precip. pattern.  Ethanol production jumped to 1,073 tbd last week, up from 1,054 tbd the previous week, and up 7% from YA.  Production was above expectations and well above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.375 bil.  There was 107.5 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.36 mil. bu. per day, vs. 14.48 mbd needed to reach USDA.  Pace analysis suggests the USDA usage forecast is too low.  Ethanol stocks jumped to 26.4 mb, matching a 13 high, however were in line with expectations.  Implied gasoline usage jumped 6% LW to 9.236 mbd, however were still down nearly 1% YOY.  Cal-Maine reportedly culled 3.6% of its poultry flock at a TX facility after testing positive for bird flu.  With nearly 2 mil. birds destroyed it’s the largest bird flu casualty in the US since early Dec-23.  Datagro forecasts Brazilian corn production at 114.9 mmt, just above the Mch-24 Conab est. of 112.8 mmt, and well below the USDA est. of 124 mmt.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 32 – 55 mil. bu. 

QST corn chart on 4.3.24


Prices finished higher across the entire complex with beans up $.07 – $.08, meal was $1 – $2 higher while oil was up 20 – 35.  Nov-24 beans held support just above its 50 day MA.  May-24 meal held support above its contract low at $323.20.  An inside trading session for May-24 oil.  Spot board crush margins slipped a few cents today to $.81 bu. with bean oil PV holding at a 5 month high of 42.5%.  Forecasts for SA are mostly favorable.  Argentina is expecting a mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to 10 days supporting late crop development while allowing early harvest operations to get going.  Rains across northern growing regions of Brazil will support 2nd crop corn development.  SW and WC areas of Brazil in MGDS, Parana and Western Sao Paulo will get some moisture relief by early next week, however more is needed to prevent crop stress.  Iran is reportedly seeking 120k mt of SA soybean meal for June/July shipment.  A Phillips66 spokesperson said they expect their new SF refinery to increase renewable diesel production to 50k bpd by the end of Q2, up from the current 30k bpd pace.  They also indicate they’ll start producing SAF in Q2.  Heartland Renewable’s, an 80 mil. gallon/year renewable diesel facility under construction in NE has pushed the expected completion of their project until 2026 due to labor and supply chain shortages.  Datagro lowered their Brazilian soybean est. 1 mmt to 146.3 mmt, in line with Conab est. at 146.9 mmt, and well below the March USDA forecast of 155 mmt.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 8 – 20 mil. bu. of soybeans, 100 – 350k tons meal, and -5 – 10k tons of bean oil. 

QST soybeans chart on 4.3.24


Prices firmed late closing back near session highs.  Chicago and MGEX were up $.09 – $.12 while KC was up $.14 – $.17.  May-24 MGEX failed to establish at key reversal.  Key resistance for May-24 Chicago is at its 50 day MA at $5.72, same for KC May-24 at $5.90.    Little moisture is offered for growing drought areas of Northern MN and ND in the next week.  Forecast models are less confident in beneficial moisture for dryer areas on the SW US plains early next week as heavier rains have shifted north and east.  Tunisia is reportedly seeking 50k mt of soft milling wheat and 50k mt of durum for April/May shipment.  Offers are due by April 4th for both tenders.  After passing on its most recent tender Jordan is seeking 120k mt of milling wheat in a tender due April 16th.  Sources suggest Russia is extending its probe of grain export quality concerns.  The Russian Govt. reportedly hasn’t issued the necessary phytosanitary certificates for 2 Aston vessels, this after TD RIF last week said they’ve had 400k mt of grain shipments halted.  Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from -4 – 15 mil. bu. 

QST wheat chart on 4.3.24

Chart source: QST

>>See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now