Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower on concern over demand. Informa will release their May crop report numbers for 2020 on May 5. They currently estimate US 2020 planted acres near 83.5, crop near 4,220, demand near 4,380 and carryout near 360. They est 2020/21 soybean crush near 2,140 versus USDA 2,125 this year and exports near 2,100 versus USDA 1,775. Brazil soybean crop is estimated near 121 mmt. Steep drop in Brazil currency has pushed Brazil cash soybean prices higher and jumped to $10.00 per bushel. Argentina soybean crop is estimated near 50 mmt. May soybean deliveries are expected to be near 250-500 contracts, soymeal could be 250-750 contracts and soyoil 2,500-3,000 contracts. USDA estimated US soybean plantings near 8 pct. IL is 18. AR is 12. IN is 11. IA is 9. Delta is near 30 percent. Quick planting of the US crop is well ahead of last year and could offer resistance to prices.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Increase liquidation of May open interest before first notice day widen the May- July spread. Most feel higher US 2020 supplies will add to the 2020/21 carryout and widen deferred corn spreads. POTUS may invoke National Defense Act to open meat processing plants. Some feel pork plants are running at 65-67 pct of capacity, beef 72-75 pct. Closing of plants, drop in restaurant demand and increase exports has dropped meat supplies. Weekly US ethanol production is expected to drop for the eighth straight week. Some feel drop in production and slight increase in gas use could drop stocks. USDA reported that farmers have planted 27 pct of the US 2020 corn crop. Some feel farmers in the west may have planted even more. May corn deliveries are expected near 750-1,000 contracts. Most still feel corn futures should trend lower if US summer weather is normal and demand does not increase quickly. Informa will release their May crop report numbers for 2020 on May 5. They have been US 2020 supply near 18,240 mil bu and carryout near 3,400.
WHEAT
Wheat futures were supported by fact USDA dropped weekly US winter wheat crop ratings. Combination of dry weather and recent freeze may have lowered the ratings. 54 pct of the crop is rated good/ex versus 57 last week. Drops were in CO, KS, NE, OK and OR. Still the possibility of showers in parts of Europe and Russia could limit the upside in prices. Fact Russia will slow wheat exports has backed wheat into the country and dropped prices. Lower Russia prices could also weigh on futures. There are expected to be no May Chicago wheat deliveries. Informa will release their May crop report numbers for 2020 on May 5. They are currently estimating total US 2020 supply near 2,970 mil bu and carryout near 965. Demand is estimated near 2,009 versus 2,135 this year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
