Ag Market View for Apr 27.22
Soybean futures ended higher on higher US soybean crush margins and new highs in palmoil, Winnipeg canola and new crop Matif rapeseed. Talk that Indonesia was going to ban palmoil exports offered support. Winnipeg canola futures near 1.20 also supported soyoil futures near 85. There was talk that US cash soybean crush margins near 300 cents has firmed the US domestic soybean basis and may also be helping soybean futures. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est near 250-800 mt vs 460 last week. New crop is 250-750 vs 1,240 last week. Some say China buying old crop has slowed but may have been active in buying US new crop. SN resistance is near 17.34 the 17.41.
Corn futures ended higher. CN ended near 8.12 with a range of 7.95-8.18. CN made new highs on talk that China was asking about US corn export prices for July-August. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 1.7 pct from last week and up 1.9 pct from last year. Stocks were down 1.5 pct from last week but still up 21 pct from last year. Margins improved which should be positive to spreads and futures. US weekly corn export sales are est at 900-1,600 mt vs 879 last week. New crop is 800-1,250 mt vs 384 last week. Some est US 2021/22 corn exports closer to 2,700 vs USDA 2,500. This could drop US 2021/22 corn carryout to 1,200 vs USDA 1,440. Trade still looking for US farmers to plant near 90.0 million corn acres vs 93.4 ly. This could produce a crop near 14,700. Demand could be near 14,900 which could drop US 2022/23 corn carryout closer to 1,000. US corn planting pace is behind last year and average. Rains are forecasted next week for parts of dry US west Midwest. Key will be if rains continue or drier weather occurs this summer. Russia shelled a key bridge in W Ukraine where Ukraine grains was being shipped to EU. Russia may have also shelled a key bridge in Odessa that grain was shipped to export elevators for exporting.
Wheat futures ended mixed. Some profit taking offered resistance to Chicago and KC. Mpls wheat ended higher. WN ended near 10.91 with a range of 10.78 to 10.97. KWN ended near 11.55 with a range of 11.46 to 11.65. Weather maps look for rains across some of the dry areas of SW KS and TX and OK panhandle early next week. C OK could see the best rains. This week, USDA dropped US HRW crop ratings due to dry weather. US north plains and east Canada prairies are wet. West Canada is dry. US weekly Wheat export sales are est at 150-575 mt vs 264 last week.US export prices are still a premium especially to Russia. Trade estimates US 2022 wheat acres near 47.4 vs 46.7 ly. Crop is estimated from 1,740 to 1,960 vs 1,646 ly. US 2022/23 carryout is estimated from 475 to 815. Most look higher 2022 Russia, EU, US and Canada crops. Open interest continues to decline. Option open interest with largest open interest in 11.00 strike then 14.00.
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