Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2024 Results
April 30, 2024
CORN
Prices closed $.02 – $.03 higher making new highs late in today’s trade. May-24 traded to a new high for the month with next resistance at the Mch-24 high at $4.48. Next resistance for Dec-24 is at the March high of $4.81, which is also near the 100 day MA. Widespread, heavy rains are expected to impact much of the nation’s midsection late this week thru the early part of next week. Much of the central corn and soybean belt is expected to receive 3+”. Lighter totals in the far ECB along with SW and NW plains. While plantings will be delayed, the precipitation will help build subsoil moisture ahead of the summer growing season. Longer range forecasts are leaning towards a dryer outlook in early May. No export announcements today. US corn remains priced below SA origin thru May, roughly the same for June, while SA offers dip below US July forward. Algeria is reportedly seeking 120k mt of corn in a tender that closes later this week. US plantings at 12% were in line with expectations while matching the YA pace and ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 10%. 3% of the crop has emerged. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production ranging from 905 – 1,030 tbd, vs. 983 tbd the previous week, which was a 3 month low.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.02 – $.06 as spreads firmed, meal was $1 lower, while oil was up 20 – 30. Since holding support just above contract lows late last week May-24 beans have closed higher 3 consecutive sessions closing in on overhead resistance at its 50 day MA at $11.73. May-24 meal traded to its highest level since early Feb-24 before backing up. It was an inside trading day for May-24 oil with next resistance at the 50 day MA, currently 46.75. Heavy rains in Southern Brazil could produce localized flooding and harvest delays across RGDS and Santa Catarina over the next week to 10 days. A dryer outlook is expected for much of the central and northern growing areas of the country. Better harvest opportunities this week in Central Argentina. Iran reportedly bought 60k mt of SA soybean meal, roughly half the volume they were seeking. Algeria is also tendering for 70k mt of soybean meal. US planting progress at 8% matches the YA pace while double the 5-year Ave. Brazilian harvest was roughly 90% as of late last week.
WHEAT
Prices surged in late trade as MGEX and KC finished up $.10 – $.12 while Chicago was $.13 – $.15 higher. May-24 Chicago surged to a 2 month high stopping just shy of its 100 day MA resistance at $5.88 ¼. May-24 KC also surged to its highest level since early Feb-24 while closing above its 100 day MA for the first time since Aug 1st of last summer. While some rains may fall across E. Ukraine and S. Russia, coverage is expected to be lite with net drying expected, furthering the need for weather premium in wheat. Jordan passed on their recent tender for 120k mt of feed wheat. Algeria is also tendering for 50k mt of durum wheat for June shipment. US winter wheat ratings fell 5% to 50% G/E. While the decline was bigger than expected ratings remain well above YA at 26% G/E and are still the highest since 2020. The biggest declines were in KS and OK with increases in IL and SD. 9 states saw composite ratings decline, 7 improved, while 2 states held steady. 17% of the crop is headed vs. 16% YA and 5-year Ave. of 13%. Current crop conditions to me would suggest an average yield for winter wheat of roughly 51 bpa., just above the 50.6 bpa yield from YA. Spring wheat plantings advanced more than expected to 15%, well ahead of the YA pace of 4% and 5-year Ave. of 10%.
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