Ag Market View for Apr 11.23
The soybean complex was higher across the board with old crop beans up $.09 – $.10, new crop up $.03 – $.05. Soybean meal was up $4 – $7 while oil was 20 – 50 higher. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 210 mil. bu. Spot board crush margins improved $.10 today to $1.14. World stocks held steady at 100 mmt, vs. expectations for a 1–2 mmt decrease. Argentina’s production was slashed another 6 mmt to 27 mmt. Their imports were increased by 1 mmt, while crush was cut 3.25 mmt. Their soybean meal production and exports were both cut by 2.5 mmt. Brazil’s production increased 1 mmt to 154 mmt, however their exports were left unchanged at 92.7 mmt. Just a modest increase in Brazil’s crush and soybean meal exports. Chinese imports were held steady at 96 mmt, however their crush was trimmed by 1 mmt to 91 mmt. So far Argentina’s preferred currency or “soy dollar” program has generated little to no selling interest from farmers. Government officials suspect producers are still learning the details of the latest incentive. The Argentine government is allowing soybean exporters an opportunity to request shipping delays of up to 60 days. May-23 appears to be well supported above $14.75 on tight US supplies and likely further production cuts from Argentina. Rallies much over $15 seemed capped by the huge premium US prices are to Brazil.
Prices closed roughly $.03 lower across all contracts. Today’s USDA report was rather uneventful as the USDA seemingly ignored the supportive Mch 31st stocks data. The May-23 WASDE report will be the first look at the new crop 2023/24 balance sheets taking into account the updated USDA acreage data. For now back to trading weather, US planting progress, weekly demand data, and developments from the Black Sea. US weather remains constructive for field work thru Friday before a front pushes thru bringing cooler temperatures and chance for light rains. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts suggest cooler than normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. The early strength today in May-23 was capped right at its 100 day MA of $6.57 ¾ before backing off. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 1.342 bil. bu. The only change to the balance sheet was a 10 mil. bu. decrease in imports offset by a 10 mil. bu. decrease in FSI usage. Strong cash basis continues to provide underlying support. Ethanol production margins surged in the past week as stocks tightened in last weeks production and storage report. Limiting the upside is favorable US weather and softer export demand following the Chinese buying in mid-March. World ending stocks rose 1.1 mmt to 296.5 mmt, in line with expectations. Argentine production was cut another 3 mmt to 37 mmt. They left Brazil’s production forecast unchanged at 125 mmt. Argentina’s exports were cut 3 mmt to offset the lower production. Ukraine’s corn exports rose 2 mmt to 25.5 mmt. Chinese imports held steady at 18 mmt.
Wheat closed lower across the board in all 3 classes. MGEX was down $.11 – $.13, KC down $.08, while Chicago was down $.05 – $.10. May-23 KC premium to Chicago made a new high today at $2.01 before pulling back. US wheat ending stocks rose 30 mil. bu. to 598 mil., nearly 20 mil. bu. above expectations. Feed usage was cut 25 mil. bu. while imports rose 5 mil. There were significant by class changes in the USDA balance sheet. HRS stocks up 31 mil., white up 19 mil., durum up 4 mil., HRW down 11 mil., while SRW was down 14 mil. World wheat stocks fell by just over 2 mmt to 265 mmt, at the low end of expectations. EU wheat exports were cut 2 mmt, while exports were increased by 1.5 mmt for Russia, and 1 mmt for Ukraine. US winter wheat conditions slipped 1% to only 27% G/E, while poor/VP increased 1% to 37%. While overall ratings remain historically low, forecasts do not offer much hope for improvement anytime soon with limited moisture being offered in the US Southern plains for the next week to 10 days.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.