Ag Market View for Feb 4
Soybeans and soyoil traded higher. Corn, soymeal and wheat traded lower. US stocks were higher. US Dollar was higher. Crude was higher. Gold and silver were lower.
Soybeans traded marginally higher. Soyoil gained on soymeal. US weekly soybean and soymeal export sales data was supportive but large net fund long and talk that USDA may not make big and positive changes to their US 2020/21 soybean balance sheet offered resistance. Even though Brazil soybean harvest is late some are concerned that funds may not be able to hold/add to longs once their harvest begins. US soybean sales rose 824 mt. Total commit is near 58.6 mmt versus 32.2 last year USDA goal is 60.6 mmt versus 45.7 last year. China commit is near 35.3 mmt with 3.5 in unknown. China bought 500 mt US new crop soybeans. Their new crop commit is near 1.9 mmt. There is also 1.9 mmt in US new crop export commit. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 123 mil bu versus USDA 140. Trade estimates Argentina soybean crop near 47.6 mmt versus USDA 48.0. Brazil crop is estimated near 132.4 versus USDA 133.0.
Corn futures ended lower. Buy the rumor sell the fact? Large net fund long and talk that USDA may not make big and positive enough changes to their US 2020/21 corn balance sheet offered resistance. Even though Brazil 2nd crop corn plantings are late some are concerned that funds may not be able to hold/add to longs into their new crop harvest. US corn sales rose a record 7.4 mmt. Total commit is near 56.1 mmt versus 22.8 last year USDA goal is 64.7 mmt versus 45.1 last year. China commit is near 17.7 mmt with 8.3 in unknown. There is talk that China may be looking for additional US corn. China domestic corn prices remain high and near 10.84. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu versus USDA 1,552. Trade estimates Argentina corn crop near 47.0 mmt versus USDA 47.5. Brazilcrop is estimated near 108.4 versus USDA 109.0. USDA Ag Attaché estimated the crop near 105.0. Need lower USDA numbers to push corn futures higher. US domestic buyers struggling to source summer corn.
Wheat futures traded lower. Concern that USDA may not make a lot of changes in their Feb 9 wheat numbers and lower corn price action weighed on prices. Higher US Dollar also offered resistance. US wheat sales rose 643 mt. Total commit is near 22.4 mmt versus 21.2 last year USDA goal is 26.8 mmt versus 26.2 last year. Last Egypt tender suggest east Europe prices are lower than US due to lower freight. Russia wheat farmer is selling cash in front of increase export taxes. Russia plans to launch a permanent grain export mechanism on April 1. The mechanism is a formula-based export tax for grain to which Moscow previously planned to switch from fixed-size tariffs which it imposed from Feb. 15. “The situation in the global food market is unfortunately worsening,” Putin said, adding that there was also a need to prepare a mechanism to support grain producers. Global wheat prices have risen since mid-December when Russia said it would try to slow exports with fixed export taxes. Next USDA report is Feb 9. Trade estimates US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 834 mil bu versus USDA 836. Trade also estimates World wheat carryout near 312.8 mmt versus USDA 313.1.
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