Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2023
September 19, 2023
ADMISI London Wheat Report for 6 September
- September 7, 2023
- ADMISI Grains Team
- Follow us on Twitter @ADMISI_Ltd
London Wheat Report
Bank of Canada has held rates steady after the economy shrank in Q2. Bailey has stated that the BOE is approaching the end of interest rate rises. Armenia are training with US troops which will irritate the Kremlin undoubtably. Minimal progress on the grains corridor. Some decent Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports on the Danube overnight with the Romanians getting excited about so close to their border. US trade deficit was $65bn vs expectations of $68bn. German factory orders were down 11.7%.
Wheat markets were supported today, both in the US and Europe. Aggression was very much the leading fundamental here alongside southern hemisphere weather concerns. Argentine wheat area remains dry and a lot of chatter about potential Aussie production which ABARES pegged at 25.4Mmt, down 36% on previous year. But, on these threads of bullish chat, we still have huge wheat flows. Russian exports are flying with Russian grains export pace this season already up 25% Y-O-Y.
Chicago wheat was trading up 11 cents at time of writing on Dec-23. Matif Dec-23 was supported on the back of Chicago, having been trading unchanged for most of the morning before the main US session opened up. Matif Dec-23 settled up €3.75/t on yesterday at €237.25/t with decent volumes traded coming in at just over 40k on Dec-23. London wheat was a day of spreads with 681 lots trading on the Nov23/May24 spread, serious volumes and 787/792 of the trades on May-24 being down to the spread. Nov-23 was supported, popping up to the £187 level into the close.
USDA beans ratings were down 5% GD/EX with drops across the states. Mixed chatter on further declines with market anticipating further downgrades. Chinese crush is on fire with Aug-23 crush coming in at a whopping 9.5Mmt. Chicago soybeans were supported. Argentina on track to harvest 47.8Mmt of soybeans in the 23/24 crop year. Brazil has officially overtaken US as the largest corn exporter to China so far this year. Chicago corn was trading unchanged. Matif rapeseed was supported on Nov-23, settling up €4.00 on yesterday at €459.75/t.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice. ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2023 ADM Investor Services International Limited3
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
