ADMISI London Wheat Report for 4 November

TGIF.

Well what a whirlwind of week we’ve had, substantial excitement and maybe a little too much for some. Chatter continues that Xi and the gang are going to see sense and relax existing COVID policy but none of this appears to be mentioned in the official channels that are coming out of China. Weak USD and a rally in crude helped pull up Chicago markets. Brent crude has shot up to $98.72/ba at time of writing, last trading up 4% on yesterday, major gains. Was reassuring to see how substantial the oil majors profits were for Q3 this week. Poor Saudi Aramco.

Volatility can be expected to continue as the trade analyses the Mid-Terms and CPI data alongside the WASDE is expected next week. Not much change is anticipated. Black Sea woes and China won’t be disappearing any time soon. Chicago wheat pushed higher on technical selling and end of week short covering, who knows what may appear. Weaker USD and concerns about available supplies are also supportive. Russian commitment to the grains deal is still very much smoke and mirrors. Trade community and UN appear to assume that it will continue but nothing of the such has come out of the Kremlin. Erdogan and Putin stated after their meeting yesterday that Russia would be accommodating to supply free grain to the poorest nations. Wonder what the catch 22’s of this are going to be ….  Iraq bought 150kt of wheat sourced from Lithuania and Australia. Matif Dec-22 settled down €1.50 on yesterday at €339.25/t.

French wheat and winter barley crop development was running about a week ahead of the five-year average by Oct. 31, farm office FranceAgriMer said today. Soft wheat in France, the European Union’s biggest grain producer, had emerged from the ground on about 61% of the expected area by Oct. 31, compared with 42% last year and six days ahead of the five-year average. sown 84% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Oct. 31, compared with 63% a week earlier.

US railway union strike possible as early as November 19^th as the transport unions get confident, turning down the 24% pay deal earlier on. I smell greed and insanity. Time to make an example of them. Can’t Biden doing much though, as usual.

Soybeans have continued to find support, especially from crude and energy markets. Additional support is also anticipated from hopes of improved export demand. Palm oil’s large discount to soybean oil may shrink as prices of competing vegetable oils may ease in the first half of 2023, according to Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based Oil World. Matif rapeseed Feb-23 settled up €4.75 on yesterday at €664.75/t.