Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
London Wheat Report
US Quarterly stocks didn’t present any surprises and were largely in line with expectations. USDA estimated:
- US September 1 corn stocks at 1,760 mil bu vs 1,844 expected and 1,360 last year
- US September 1 soybean stocks at 342 mil bu vs 351 expected and 264 last year
- US September 1 wheat stocks at 1,985 mil bu vs 1,973 expected and 1,767 last year
- US 2024 wheat crop at 1,971 mil bu vs 1,966 expected and 1,982 previous
- US 2023 corn crop at 15,340 mil bu vs 15,290 expected and 15,342 previous
- US 2023 soybean crop at 4,162 mil bu vs 4,164 expected and 4,165 previous
Friday’s CFTC commitment of traders showed managed money as net buyers for the 6th consecutive week and 9 of the last 10. In total they were net buyers of 138,747 contracts reducing their short position to 124,382 contracts, their smallest short position in 4 months.
Russian 12.5% protein new crop wheat (FOB) with delivery in November was reportable trading at $222 per tonne at the end of last week, up $5, says Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy. Sovecon reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $219-$221, up from $217-220 the previous week.
U.S. East and Gulf Coast port workers are set to go on strike at midnight tonight with no talks currently scheduled to head off a stoppage threatening to halt container traffic from Maine to Texas and cost the economy as much as $5 billion a day.
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