Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
London Wheat Report
As we approach the end of the week, we have USDA reports tomorrow and the US Govt budget saga which seems to be the norm now. China will be off next week for Golden Week so that may slow the pace in the commodity world too. Markets are consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s report. Brent is still sitting strongly around the $96/ba levels.
Wheat markets were flat to lower. Chicago wheat was trading unchanged at time of writing while both Matif and London were trading lower. US weekly wheat sales climbed 77% with exports jumping 98% to year marketing high, totaling 544,500t in the week ending September 21st. . US export pace has ramped up of late but it is still estimated to be the 59th lowest out of the last 64 years. Rouen exports remained flat at 79kt led by the Ivory Coast. Still plenty of UKR/Polish spatter about grains and cheap grains entering the EU. Mixed opinions here but by the looks of it, Ukrainian grain import ban will be sticking in Poland. Russian obsession with a floor price kicked them out of GASC’s tender which went Romanian/Bulgarian …. But now with Kremlin direct govt to govt grain deals, would be interesting to know the internal figures of such. When they decide to supposedly stop this floor price, Russian wheat will push the market lower naturally. Matif kicked off the day around the unchanged levels before pushing lower with Dec-23 trading around €239/T into the close. London had a bearish day with Nov-23 pushing through the £190/t levels and sitting around the £189/t sweet spot into the end of the afternoon. Vols were quite low. Nov23/May24 spread was hitting -14.45 before pulling back to -13.
Plenty of corn to China from Ukraine is due to be shipped next month with market confirmation coming through on the grapevine rumours of recent that a few hundred thousand tonnes of Ukrainian corn has been booked for out loading. 15 vessels confirmed. Safe to say none of the Kremlin’s pyro is going to be hitting any of those boats. US corn sales were within trade estimates at 841,800t in W/E 21st Sept. EU commission also lowered its maize output to 59.8Mmt from an originally projected 61.7Mmt.
Oilseed complex also pushed lower. Chicago soybeans were trading lower with Nov-23 down 4 cents at time of writing. US soybean export sales rose 54% to 672kt. Ukrainian weekly sunoil exports jumped by 33.5%, total now circa 302kt, down 37 Y-O-Y. Matif rapeseed was under pressure with Nov-23 settling down €7.25 on yesterday at €445/t.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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