ADMISI London Wheat Report for 26 June

Well what an exciting weekend by all accounts. Elton John smashes his apparent final ever performance in the UK with over 7M people tuning in to watch him at Glasto last night and in another major event, Wagner appeared to have a little weekend soiree in southern Russia with some serious big boys toys and a race on the M4 to Moscow that would make the Gumball 3000 look a bit amateur. Volatility would have been incredible had this happened when markets were open, which leads me to think that Yevgeny Prigozhin and his boys didn’t have any mates with sizeable long positions in Ags, can you imagine Chicago and Matif’s reactions if they were open … rookie error there dear boy.

This morning’s CFTC showed that managed money investors continued to accumulate corn and soybean longs amid the dry weather conditions currently being seen in the US. Well, the weather takes the forefront yet again. US rainfall is expected to favour the Northern Midwest with seasonal levels of precipitation expected – bears will be doing their rain dance in anticipation of this. In the state of Iowa, from stats that we have seen today, accumulated rainfall is currently the same as in 2021 and around 40% less than rainfall last season, so potential for similar drought conditions for the Iowa corn crop as was witnessed in 2021.

Wheat markets bounced back, like much of the ag complex as they opened up today following the weekend’s excitement. Chicago opened the main session, trading up 14 cents on Friday’s close before cooling off and trading lower 4/5 cents at time of writing. Matif Sep-23 hit a trading high of €254.50 as it opened up this morning before, similarly to Chicago, cooling back off and trading unchanged to lower this afternoon. Still a bit to digest with funds sitting just over 84k short on Chicago wheat, weather issues as we’ve said are more of a back garden US centric issue while Northern Hemisphere production is trucking at full bore to be quite a juicy wheat harvest by all accounts. Lots of chatter from US news outlets whether Russia will still be perceived as a reliable trading partner for wheat ……. I’ll refrain from commenting here. US wheat inspections slipped 14% to 203,724t, below market expectations.

US soybean export inspections were at the lower end of expectations. Soybeans were supported on Chicago today, bumped up by weather and supported again by Russian antics. Indonesia plans to raise its mandatory palm oil-based biodiesel blending to 40% in the next few years, but for now will keep it unchanged at 35%, the country’s energy minister said today. Matif rapeseed was supported in today’s trade with Nov-23 trading up circa €10 on Friday at around the €448/449 levels this afternoon, after hitting a trading high of €452/t.