ADMISI London Wheat Report for 25 July

Well, things appear to have cooled a little after yesterday’s excitement. Russia and China are attending a summit in North Korea. Rhodes fires appear to be under a form of control, although temperatures there remain at significant levels. HSBC are the first commercial lender to cut mortgage rates on their 2 year fixed by 0.1%. Market awaits the FED’s decision on whether they will refrain from raising rates or if they will continue after seeing the economic resilience.

USDA crop ratings emerged without major surprises, Corn ratings held steady at 57% G/E, while expectations were for a 1-2% increase. Soybean ratings slipped 1% to 54% G/E, in line with expectations. Spring wheat ratings slipped 2% to 49% G/E, in line with expectations. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 68% complete vs. 76% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 77%.

Wheat markets cooled off today although have remained jumpy, but have not continued their significant climb higher. Attacks overnight towards the Danube areas and loading facilities calmed, whether this is a de-escalation or a pause we will have to see but reports that barges had started to be loaded again today does show exports will flow. It very much depends on whether a ship goes down really now as this would be a step up considerably. Russian grain exports continue to flow unhindered. Volatility is set to remain and knee jerk reactions toward headlines will continue as they always have done. Export vols from Ukraine remain unaffected even with Odessa closed, as long as Danube remains open. Ukragroconsult still pegs this at circa 5Mmt/month.

Russian harvest progress has slowed due to rains, as of 20th Jul-23 only 14% of the planted areas in Russia had been harvested compared to 22% during the same period last year according to SovEcon. European Commission announced a second delay of its weekly cereal exports and imports data till 1st August. Chicago wheat was trading marginally lower towards the end of the afternoon. Matif was also trading lower with Sep-23 trading, settling down €3.00 at €261.75.

Oilseed complex was trading lower with Chicago beans trading lower, Nov-23 beans were trading down 14 cents at time of writing around the 1410 level. Matif rapeseed Nov-23 also pushed lower, settling €10.50 down on yesterday at €478.50/t.