ADMISI London Wheat Report for 20 November

London Wheat Report

London Wheat Report Chart - Futuresource

It was announced today that Russian farmers are reporting that they will sow less wheat after experiencing heavy crop losses this year. Instead, they are switching to more profitable crops such as peas, lentils, or oilseeds. This change in course will have direct implications for global wheat prices and inflation in major buyers, mainly in the North Africa region, as Russia is the world’s top exporter of the grain. This divergence provides a mounting challenge for President Vladimir Putin’s plan to expand exports and cement Russia’s position as an agriculture superpower. The intention for this was to give the country more international clout amid the continued war in Ukraine, with the ability to apply pressure to other countries dependent on grain. The country’s wheat harvest will decline to 83 mmt this year due to ongoing frosts and drought. This is down from 92.8 mmt in 2023, which followed a record 104.2 mmt in 2022. The latest forecasts predict a choppy outlook for next year as well.

Further East, it has been reported that U.S. soybean exports to China more than doubled in October from a year earlier. This marks a seventh month of growth, prompted by buyers accelerating shipments fearing a rise in trade tensions given a Trump return to the White House at the beginning of next year. China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, imported 541,434 mmt of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 228,253 tonnes a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs data released today. This indicates a strong case for China stocking up before any impending tariffs are imposed and raised questions about where the biggest importer will look to buy from next year.

Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team

Ryan Easterbrook, Aaron Stockley-Isted and Jamie Kirkwood

Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477  or  +44 (0)20 7716 8140      Email: intl.grains@admisi.com

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