Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2025
July 2, 2025
London Wheat Report
Iran’s supreme leader warns Donald Trump of “irreparable harm” if the US military intervenes in Tehran’s conflict with Israel. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says in a message on state television that Iran will not surrender, following an earlier warning from the US president. Trump is considering joining Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Issues in the Middle East were driving the markets today with wheat once again leading the charge. Perhaps with the US markets shut tomorrow for Juneteenth and the uncertainty of what may happen in the next 24/48 hours whilst markets are closed, there was some short covering. Chicago wheat is trading up 23.5 cents at the time of writing, and both Matif and London closed well up on yesterday.
European Union soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 19.76 million metric tons by June 15, compared to 19.49 million the previous week, and down 34% on a year earlier, European Commission data showed on Tuesday. A breakdown of this season’s volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 5.38 million tons exported so far, followed by Germany with 2.60 million tons, Lithuania with 2.58 million tons, Latvia with 2.20 million tons and Bulgaria with 2.16 million tons.
Farm office FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for 2024/25 French soft wheat exports on Wednesday, citing brisk late-season demand, but the EU’s biggest grain producer still faces its worst wheat export campaign this century after a rain-hit crop. In supply and demand data, FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports outside the EU this season at 3.25 million metric tons, up from 3.20 million tons projected last month. The latest estimate is 68% below last season’s level.
One of Russia’s largest grain producing regions, Krasnodar, has declared a state of agricultural emergency in eight drought-hit municipalities, a move which allows farmers to seek compensation for any losses.
US Markets Closed for Juneteenth Holiday tomorrow, reopen on Friday.
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