ADMISI London Wheat Report for 16 June

As problems in the Middle East continue, Brent Crude is currently trading down 4% after the lack of involvement from anyone else seems to have cooled the idea of an escalation involving more than just Iran and Israel. Iran has also said it is willing to negotiate a de-escalation as long as the USA doesn’t join Israel in its offensive.

It looks as though after Friday’s bounce which was bolstered by issues in the Middle East, grains are now trading back on fundamentals. Chicago wheat spent the day in the red and is trading down 6 cents at the time of writing, giving back some of its gains from Friday having closed up 16.5 cents on Friday due to the ‘’war premium’’. Matif and London wheat were also trading down all day. We will have to wait for the latest round of US crop progress reports released tomorrow to see if there is any bullish sentiment.

Soybeans continue to trade at their highest levels for 18 months after the Biofuel mandate changes released on Friday from President Trump’s administration. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons in 2025. This was higher than the market anticipated.

Yesterday, Algeria tendered to buy 50,000 tons of soft milling wheat with the deadline, tomorrow. The wheat is sought for shipment in two periods from the main supply regions including Europe: August 10-20 and August 21-31. If sourced from South America or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

Corn is coming under some considerable pressure. Good weather conditions during the development of the second corn crop in Brazil reinforce expectations of high production in 2024/25. This week, Conab adjusted positively estimates for the harvesting. Double digit losses were being traded on screen today.

CFTC- COT

Activity from the speculative traders across the Ag. space was mixed in the week ended Tues. June 10th. Money managers were net buyers of nearly 37k contracts reducing their net short position to 130,239 contracts. In corn MM’s were net sellers of nearly 10k contracts extending their short position to just over 164k contracts, also the largest since Sept-24. MM’s were net buyers in all 3 classes of wheat for the 4th consecutive week.