Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
London Wheat Report
The cost of war risk insurance for vessels heading to Black Sea ports has surged amid recent drone-related incidents. According to industry sources, insurance rates for port calls at Black Sea terminals have increased to 0.8–1% of a vessel’s value, up from 0.6–0.8% in late December, marking the highest level since 2023. The heightened risk applies to both Ukrainian and Russian ports, prompting insurers to review coverage terms almost daily. Market participants note that the Black Sea is characterized by rapid escalation of threats and high volatility in war risk insurance premiums. Policies in the region are typically issued for short periods of around seven days, with terms now increasingly being reassessed every 24 hours.
Latest data showed funds reduced their net short position on Matif wheat, from 183,644 to 154,098 in the latest data released by the exchange. In Euronext’s rapeseed futures and options, non-commercial market participants reduced their net short position to 3,367 contracts from 12,306 a week earlier.
According to customs data released today, China has imported record numbers of soybeans in 2025. China imported 111.83 million metric tons in 2025, an increase of 6.5% from a year earlier. The Chinese have significantly increased purchases from South America because of the uncertainty due to ongoing political problems between Beijing and Washington.
Corn and Soybean markets were given some support today off the back of flash sales announced from the USDA. 136,000 Metric Tons of Corn were sold to South Korea, and 334,000 Metric Tons of Soybeans were sold to China.
Argentina is poised for a notable surge in soybean exports, projected to reach 8.2 million tonnes by 2026, marking the highest since 2019-20.
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