ADMISI London Wheat Report for 13 February

Happy Monday!!

Hope everyone had a refreshing weekend and good to see England actually playing in a much more positive way yesterday compared to last weekend. Loved the Irish beating France. Wales still have some improvements to do. More UFO sightings over the US over the weekend with a UFO shot down over Canada and another UFO shot down over Lake Huron. Kremlin forces turn the heat up in Bakhmut with intensity of shelling increasing and the Russian advance slowly moving forward. NATO are starting to question arms stocks due to the rate of fire by the Ukrainians currently well above the rate of supply. US also encouraged all US citizens to leave Russia.

Wheat markets started the week off pretty uneventful this morning before gaining some headline support. The Kremlin has kicked off its usual stance whenever we are starting to approach the grains corridor renewal which in this instance is on the 19th March. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said in an interview with the RTVI broadcaster that currently the sanctions against Russia are unsustainable for the deal to be renewed. This is most unsurprising as they always do it, but in my opinion, as much as they would like to renegotiate, the pure volumes of wheat that they have to shift would not make it a feasible option currently to be too clever. Payments, logistics and insurance remain the primary issue that they have.

Chicago wheat gained new ground today, hitting new highs not seen since January as the Ukraine war and Black Sea corridor chatter spurred it higher. Front month Chicago was hitting trading highs of 796/bu, levels not seen since the beginning of this year. US weekly wheat inspections were down 20% to 472,327t in the week February 9th. China sold off 139.1kt of wheat from reserves. Egypt announced that they intend to import 1Mmt of Serbian wheat via Constanta, that’s going to really irk the Romanian farmers who are already unimpressed with the Ukrainian grain flows.

London wheat had a very quiet start to the day before volumes picked up towards the afternoon. Both May and Nov 23 were trading higher, supported by strengthening Matif. Matif wheat trading volumes weren’t overly drastic, prices being pushed marginally higher on the Black Sea chatter.

Chicago soybeans had a great start to the week, with front month trading up 7 cents at time of writing. Market rumours were aloof with 2-3 cargoes of beans heading off to China even though US beans were at a premium – who knows. Either way some S&D pressure right there. Brazilian corn harvest in the Mato Grosso is catching up meeting the 5 year average at 44% complete. Brent crude was trading marginally lower today. Matif rapeseed was trading higher with May-22 settling up €4.75 on Friday at €555.25/t.