Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
London Wheat Report
This morning the markets were trading stronger with one eye on the January WASDE report which was released this afternoon. In the blink of an eye, after the report was released, the market dumped.
Corn was trading down 17 cents having been up 10 after the report showed an increase to the US corn yield which was a surprise as many priced in a cut. The WASDE showed US corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre rise in harvested area. Global corn production was raised 14.8M tonnes to 1.591 billion. Corn tumbled to trading its lowest since October last year.
Wheat was trading well up before the report to then be trading double digit loses. The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 4 million bushels on stock revisions in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million primarily on higher production for Argentina and Russia that more than offsets a reduction for Turkey. With over 90 percent of the wheat harvest in Argentina complete, the production forecast is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million, nearly 50 percent larger than the previous year. The production forecast for Russia is also increased, up 2.0 million tons to 89.5 million based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat.
Beans followed the same pattern as Corn and Wheat. U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is estimated at 126.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from the previous report. Higher soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed crops are partly offset by lower cottonseed and peanuts. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million. U.S. soybean supply for 2025/26 is raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. U.S. soybean exports are revised 60 million bushels lower to 1.575 billion on higher production and exports for Brazil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 60 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents. The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Global soybean production is increased 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million, reflecting higher crops for Brazil and the United States but lower output for China. Soybean oil used for biofuel is lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion on lower-than-expected use.
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