ADMISI London Wheat Report for 11 August

Yesterday, Donald Trump said in a speech that he hopes China would quadruple their bean orders from the USA which would be a good way to ‘’substantially reduce’’ China’s trade deficit with the US.  A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on August 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended.

Trump, on his social media, went on to say, “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you, President Xi.” Beans were well supported in today’s trading. U.S. soybean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China’s scale. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.

Despite the huge Brazilian Safrinha crop and Argentine harvest now 90% complete, US corn remains the cheapest in the world as the market anticipates yield lifts in tomorrow’s USDA report. Corn acres under drought dropped 3% last week, and export demand for both corn and wheat- again the cheapest origin globally- remains strong.

Analyst APK-Inform raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest to 53.2 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 51.2 million tons after higher than expected corn production, the consultancy said on Monday. APK-Inform increased its corn harvest forecast to 27.5 million tons from 24.9 million tons, and cut its wheat harvest outlook to 19.7 million tons from 20.6 million tons. The Ukrainian economy ministry has also revised its 2025 grain crop forecast to 56 million metric tons from 54 million tons previously.

The latest CFTC – COT report has shown Money managers were net sellers of 73,389 contracts across the Ag. space in the week ended Tues. August 5th. This extended their net short position to 239,387 contracts, their largest net short position since Sept-24. Money managers were net buyers corn but sellers elsewhere in the Ag space. MM’s were net sellers of nearly 30k contracts of soybeans extending their short position to nearly 66k the largest this year. MM’s extended their record short position in meal to 133,592 contracts.