ADMISI London Wheat Report for 10 December

WASDE DAY, Some highlights below

CORN

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion.

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 0.6 million tons lower to 1.499 billion. The 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Mexico corn production is reduced reflecting lower winter corn area expectations. Corn exports for 2024/25 are raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for the EU. Corn imports are higher for Bangladesh, the EU, Iran, and Mexico but cut for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced based on declines for China, the EU, and Indonesia. Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 7.7 million.

OILSEEDS

Global oilseed production for 2024/25 is raised this month mainly on higher soybean production partly offset by lower rapeseed. Soybean production is raised 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. Canola production is reduced 1.1 million tons mainly on a lower yield for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada report.

The global 2024/25 soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Exports are raised for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports are raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe.

WHEAT

This month’s 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets.

The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for lower supplies, consumption, and trade and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies decline 0.6 million tons to 1,060.4 million, as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by lower global production. Production is forecast lower for the European Union, down 1.3 million tons to 121.3 million, on harvest data showing lower production for several member states. Brazil’s crop is also forecast lower on updated harvest data. Global trade is forecast down 1.0 million tons to 213.7 million tons as reductions for EU and Russia exports more than offset higher U.S. and Ukraine exports. Exports are forecast down 1.0 million tons to 47.0 million for Russia, despite a strong start to the marketing year, as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are raised 0.3 million tons to 257.9 million but are still the lowest since 2015/16.