Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
London Wheat Report
Prices could not decide which direction to head today, with all traded London wheat contracts ending the day in the red. Matif also followed Chicago’s main session turn, with the French contract also ending the day on average a euro less than the previous settlement.
It was today announced by the government of Ukraine that it has approved new documentation to accompany exports of rapeseed and soybeans that are exempt from a new duty after confusion about the levy halted shipments of oilseeds for the past month. The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill in July imposing the 10% duty on exports of the two oilseed crops, with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia. Rapeseed exports in September fell by nearly 59% to 201,000 mt after the introduction of the duty on September 4 and were halted for most of September. The law allowed duty-free exports for those who export oilseeds from their own production but did not provide a list of documents required for such shipments; hence, the reported fall. Ukrainian farmers have completed the 2025 rapeseed harvest, threshing 3.3 mmt of the commodity. Ukraine usually exports most of its output.
Sticking to the same region, low global prices for grains have caused a sharp fall in exports in recent months, impacting Russia’s main agricultural commodity, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev stated today. Wheat exports in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, fell by about 30% year-on-year in August and by 10% in September, based on data from Sovecon consultancy. This fall comes despite forecasts pointing to a good harvest this year, highlighting the global nature of the price pressure weighing on the commodity.
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