Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
London Wheat Report
The US markets started this morning in overdrive after news broke from Bloomberg that China was going to purchase US wheat after positive trade negotiation talks last week. Wheat was trading up 8 cents until the main session, where perhaps the old saying of ‘’buy the rumour, sell the fact’’ played a part. After the main session opened, the market took a turn and was trading unchanged before once again finding support to be trading up 9 cents at the time of writing. Corn also followed the same pattern.
Beans were supported in today’s trading. The market still digesting last week’s choppy exchanges. Chinese soybean importers have stepped up purchases of Brazilian cargoes in recent days as South American prices eased on expectations that a U.S.-China trade deal will lead to a resumption of U.S. sales to the world’s largest soybean importer. China has purchased 10 cargos from Brazil due for delivery in DEC and 10 between Mar-Jul next year. South American prices are now quoted below offers being made for U.S. cargoes.
The USDA announced on Friday it will release some key Nov Ag reports despite the ongoing Gov. shutdown. November 14th will see world agricultural supply and demand estimates being released. The first set of reports since September 25. This will give a better indication since the report will provide the government’s first estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production since September, when most of the Midwestern harvest was not yet underway.
On Saturday, the White House released the official fact sheet on the deals done with China last week, link below.
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