Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across most of the Ag space space overnight as the trade shook off higher energy prices. US military forces resumed targeted strikes against Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island this weekend, the first publicly acknowledged attacks since late July. In response, Iranian media is reporting they launched retaliatory strikes against US forces in Jordan. Spot crude oil is up 2.85 per barrel near $86.25, spot RBOB is up $.02 per gallon while HO is $.10 higher. Weekend precipitation favored the N. Midwest with isolated showers in the far WCB while dry across much of the nation’s midsection. 100+ degree heat across the Central and Southern plains along with the far WCB. Mid-90’s for the Delta and S. Midwest. Light to moderate rains to favor the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region this week with the South remaining hot/dry, pushing crops toward maturity to the detriment of yield. Rains this weekend in RGDS shift north into the interior south of Brazil this week. Remaining warm and dry across WC regions. Argentina also holding in a dry than normal pattern this week. Weekend rains in Eastern and Northern Europe brought mostest drought relief. Much of France shifting back to hot/dry pattern this week. The US $$ is moderately lower while holding within Friday’s range. US stock indices slightly lower.
Corn:
Both Sept-26 and Dec-26 futures are $.01 lower at $5.11 and $5.35 ½ respectively after both carved out new contract highs overnight. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s bought 126k contracts of corn extending their long position to nearly 377k contracts, the largest since April-2022. With additional buying Wed. through Friday, I suspect their long position has now surpassed the record of 429k contracts from Oct-2010. Brazil’s 2025/26 2nd crop harvest has advanced to 88% according to Patrai Agronegocios. With US finishing weather less than ideal, I look for US ratings to slip another 1% to 56% G/E. Expectations for lower EU and US production with the possibility of higher usage (including China) leaving US and global stocks much tighter than current USDA forecasts continue to fuel to price strength.
Soybeans:
Sept-26 beans are down $.04 ½ at $12.71 ¾ while Nov-26 is off $.05 at $12.82 ½, both backing off after trading into new contract highs overnight. Oct-26 meal is down $3.90 at $338.60 while holding within Friday’s range. Oct-26 oil is down 82 points at $.70 lb. also holding within Friday’s range. Crush margins pulled back $.14 to $2.30 bu. The Trump Admin. is reportedly considering raising biofuel blending quota’s in 2027 to offset lower demand from higher SRE that is expected to be announced today. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 47k soybeans, 14k meal while selling nearly 10k soybean oil. The MM long position in soybeans at 198k contracts is a 3-month high. Additional buying Wed-Fri. likely took this long position out to 235k contracts, the largest since Oct-2020. China’s new crop purchases have reached 6.8 mmt (248 mil. bu.) with another 4.87 mmt (178 mil. bu.) to unknown. Announced flash sales take these volumes even higher. I look for US crop ratings to slip another 2% to 58% G/E. Poor US finishing weather combined with Chinese buying provide little wiggle room for US yields to slip from the current USDA forecast of 52.7 bpa.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.06-$.14 lower. CGO Dec-26 is down $.12 at $7.72, KC Dec-26 is $.12 ½ lower at $8.31 ¾ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.07 lower at $7.62 ½. After buying 12k contracts the MM short position in CGO was trimmed to 14k. After buying 9k contracts in KC, the MM long position is out to 44k, the largest since April-22. Russia’s wheat exports in Aug-26 reached only 2 mmt, down 55.6% from YA while likely to reach only 1.8-2.2 in Sept-26, according to SovEcon. Domestic grain prices in Russia have fallen 36% since June with exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov being halted. SovEcon also estimates to over supply of grain to have reached 20-25 mmt.
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