Written Commentary
ADM Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
August 4, 2026
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil was near unchanged early Wednesday but holding this week’s gains, as no progress was seen towards an agreement on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but the rhetoric between leaders of the US and Iran was low as well. Weekly API crude stocks came in +9.1 million barrels for the week ending August 7 versus an average expectation from a Reuters poll calling for -1.4 million, while gasoline stocks were -1.5 million versus -1.2 million expected, and distillates were -596,000 versus -1.3 million expected.
PRODUCTS
September RBOB was lower early Wednesday but ULSD traded to new contract highs. The tightness in diesel appears to be more acutely felt due as the approach of harvest season adds to diesel demand while the peak gasoline travel season is passing. Traders are looking for modest declines in US gasoline and distillate stocks in today’s EIA report, with gasoline expected to be -1.40 million and distillates -1.3 million, according to a Reuters poll.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas extended this week’s rally early Wednesday, reaching its highest level since July 27. The market saw a setback on Tuesday yesterday from lower LNG offtake and record US production. LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 states has risen to 111.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a record 110.7 bcfd in July. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants is estimated at 17.1 bcfd so far in August, down from 17.2 bcfd in July and 17.4 bcfd in June. LNG loadings are expected to climb as scheduled maintenance concludes, and Europe need to rebuild inventories ahead of winter.
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