Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Afternoon rumours of Chinese interest in Q4 2026/Q1 2027 beans drove Global Ags markets skywards. Beans were trading down 10 cents on the day before rebounding to near 20 cent gains. Wheat and Corn went with, also. Late afternoon, the market cooled from its highs but was still trading in the green.
US FOB offers in Soybeans have now fallen below those from Brazil, even in the spot market. With 10% reciprocal tariffs on US beans, however, buyers would be limited to state owned entities only.
France is set for a bigger winter barley crop this year and a similar-sized rapeseed harvest to last year as increased planting offsets an expected fall in yields from bumper levels last year, the farm ministry said on Tuesday. In first production projections for this year’s harvest, the ministry forecast 2026 winter barley production at 9.0 million metric tons, up 8% from last year.
Australia’s weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Nino weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of 2026 to become one of the strongest in seven decades.
The latest crop tour coming from Romania has signalled it could be harvesting a record wheat crop in 2026. In a comparison to 2025 crop of 13M tons harvested, the forecasted crop from Agency Argus could be up to 13.86 million tons in 2026. Argus said the forecast was based on a record yield of 5.9 metric tons per hectare and a record harvested area of 2.35 million hectares (5.8 million acres).
A stronger day for London wheat volumes today as over 1.2K lots were traded on screen. Nov 26 led the way for volume, but was closely followed by Nov 7. A Jul 6 market was shown on screen, albeit with a £57 spread between the bid and the offer. A 67-lot bid was showing on screen at £120. I would imagine this was more in hope than expectation.
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