Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
August Crude Oil gapped lower early Friday and fell to its lowest level since April 22 following President Trump’s claim that a deal with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this weekend. Iranian media reported Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying large parts of the agreement have been finalized, but Iran would not compromise on its red lines. Some have speculated that the deal is a 60-day ceasefire extension. This comes after Trump cancelled threatened strikes on Iran on Thursday and also after increased hostilities between the two nations this week that offered only limited support to crude oil. OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, the second straight downward revision and down from 1.17 million barrels per day seen previously.
PRODUCTS
July RBOB was lower early Friday in line with crude oil, but it did not give back as much ground. We are entering the key driving season, and US gasoline supplies are the lowest they have been for this point in the season in at least six years. July ULSD gapped lower and fell to its lowest level since May 6.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since May 27 on Friday, extending Thursday’s lower move off a bearish US storage report. The 6-10- and 8-14-day maps look a bit cooler in some parts of the nation today, with below normal temps persisting from the Midwest to the north Atlantic. However, above normal temps expanded out west. Overall the forecast is mixed, but it does not present the sort of wide-ranging heat event that would spark above-normal cooling demand. Thursday’s weekly EIA gas storage report was bearish against expectations.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
