Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil was higher early Thursday as the US/Iran standoff appeared to take a negative turn. Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, which was viewed as an indicator that Iran was hardening its stance. With no big breakthroughs in peace efforts, traders are starting to focus on the threat of supply becoming critically tight as strategic reserves are drawn down and Persian Gulf producers reach the limits on their ability to divert oil to other export facilities. A UAE firm said that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now.
PRODUCTS
July RBOB fell to its lowest level since May 8 early Thursday but moved back into positive territory as the trade continue to fret over diminishing global supply, July ULSD was also higher after starting out the session under pressure.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas was higher early Thursday after falling to its lowest level of the week earlier in the session. Bouts of much above normal temperatures in areas of the US have been offset by some cooler temperatures s well, presenting a mixed viewpoint on US cooling and heating demand. There was some record heat in Washington DC this week, but overall extreme heat has been limited to certain areas at certain times. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps show the area of above normal temperatures less dominant than earlier this week, with near normal expanding eastward from the west coast into the Rockies and even some below normal temps emerging from northern California to the PNW.
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