Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
A strong start to the week for ags as markets attempt to digest China’s commitment to purchasing at least $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 through until 2028. This is in addition to the soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025, according to a White House fact sheet released on Sunday. Whilst there are few details, with the exception of the lifting of suspensions for some US beef facilities, it does suggest a ‘normalisation’ of trade relations and puts the U.S. on track for over $30 billion in total annual exports to China, which is similar to the values achieved in 2023 and 2024, or for much of the mid-2010s.
London Wheat followed US markets higher on very thin volume, as did MATIF, which closed up 2.25-3.50 EUR across the board. MARS reduced their EU 2026 soft wheat yield to 6.01 mt/ha, down from 6.05 mt/ha last month, which offered more to feed the bulls. However, they also state that crop conditions across Europe remain generally favourable, with winter crops developing well overall. Spring sowing campaigns are nearing completion in many regions, but cool and wet conditions have delayed field operations and early crop development in south-eastern Europe and Turkey. Late frost events may also affect rapeseed in central and eastern Europe.
However, weather forecasts remain benign for the next 7 days, though dry with higher temperatures out into the 14 day.
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