Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 14 May 2026

Focus on Trump-Xi summit, UK political leadership crisis as US/Iran
peace talks remain in impasse; digesting unexpected UK GDP jump, RICS
House Price slide, hawkish BoJ comments; awaiting US Retail Sales,
Import Prices, weekly jobless claims and Fed speakers.

  • U.K.: stronger than expected GDP to reinforce concerns over seasonal
    adjustment problems, offer scant or no relief for Starmer and Reeves
  • U.S.A.: solid outturn for headline and core Retail Sales after March
    gasoline price led jump; PPI highlights pipeline inflation pressures
    and upside risks for today’s Import Prices

EVENTS PREVIEW

 
The summit between Xi and Trump will be the focal point for today, with a number of markets in Europe and elsewhere closed for Ascension Day, with the initial run of comments clearly focussed on wanting to send positive messages about the bilateral relationship, and avoid comment on the many areas of tension (such as Taiwan and Iran).
 
Statistically, there are the much better than expected UK GDP data to digest, though the leadership challenge to PM Starmer will likely ride roughshod over that, particularly as the data confirm a well-established post-COVID trend of strong Q1 growth being followed by at best tepid growth throughout the rest of the year, implying seasonal adjustment issues.
 
There is also a much stronger than expected, though largely energy driven surge in India’s WPI to consider, along with comments from BoJ’s Masu calling for an immediate rate hike to head off negative real rates, shifting from a neutral position at the recent April meeting. Ahead lie US Retail Sales and the final leg of this week’s US inflation data, via way of Import Prices, with weekly jobless claims, Business Inventories and some Fed speak also on tap. The BoE’s generally hawkish leaning Pill also speaks, perhaps offering a counter to the comments overnight from Deputy Governor Breeden, who ruled out voting for a rate hike in either June or July.
 
US Retail Sales are expected to continue to signal resilience in private consumption, with headline forecast at 0.5% m/m after a gasoline price driven 1.7% m/m surge in March, with a more modest rise in gasoline prices and a slight fall in Auto Sales weighing slightly, but the core ‘Control Group’ measure is seen at a solid 0.4% m/m after rising 0.7% in March. While the ironing out of the shutdown related drop in Shelter within CPI could be used to rationalise the slightly higher than expected CPI rise, yesterday’s PPI indicated that pipeline inflation pressures are building, and imply upside risks to expectations of a 1.0% m/m rise in headline Import Prices and 0.5% m/m ex-Petroleum. Incoming Fed chair Warsh may well struggle to quell the more hawkish regional Fed Presidents’ suggestions that one or more rate hikes may be needed, with Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee on Tuesday highlighting the upward shift in Services CPI as a particular concern, and Goolsbee typically adopts a more neutral stance on rates than the likes of the hawkish leaning Hammack, Kashkari or Schmid. By laying out a dovish agenda as Trump went through selecting a new chair, Warsh may find himself in a minority on the FOMC, which would undermine his authority in the eyes of markets as he seeks to establish his monetary leadership credentials.
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