Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
London showed little in the way of price action and little volume with 130 lots tendered. MATIF traded both sides of unchanged whilst US markets traded higher, following crude oil which moved back above $108 on Brent with no end in sight for the US/Iran standoff.
Weather concerns returned to the fore with little rain reported over Kansas/Northwestern HRW areas during the weekend, and current forecast remaining dry through 1-7 days, with up to 1-1.5 inches of rain 8-14 days out.
Australian and Russian wheat also remain under stress, whilst there are also doubts over China’s grain production as heavy rains continue. However, crop monitoring service MARS raised its forecast for average soft wheat yields in the EU this year to 6.05 mt/ha from 5.98 mt/ha last month. It also lifted its forecast for the average winter barley yield to 5.23 mt/ha from 5.13 mt/ha last month. For rapeseed, they increased the EU’s projected 2026 yield to 3.25 mt/ha, up from 3.22 mt/ha last month.
On the demand side, Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) confirmed the purchase of approximately 985,000 mt of 12.5% milling wheat for June to August 2026 in its latest tender. This exceeds the initially targeted 710,000 mt, reflecting strong participation/demand. Offered origins included the European Union, the Black Sea, North America, South America and Australia, with sellers given the option to select the origin supplied. Traders expect the majority to be sourced from the Black Sea, with some possible from Western Europe during the August arrival period.
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