Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher in choppy 2-sided trade. Spreads weakened. Both July-26 and Dec-26 shot up to 2-week highs. Next resistance for July-26 is the April high at $4.71 ½. The USDA announced flash sales of 100k mt (4 mil. bu.) to Colombia and 195k mt (7.7 mil. bu.) to unknown. Plantings at 11% were in line with YA and trade expectations while just above the 5-year Ave. of 9%. Progress in the ECB is carrying the Midwest with TN at 64% vs. 5-year Ave. of 24%, KY at 48% vs. 18%, IN at 14% vs. 3%, and IL at 13 vs. 8% Ave. Iowa at 2% is behind its Ave. of 8%. 4% of the crop has emerged vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 2%. The USDA’s attache in Argentina is forecasting their 25/26 production at 61 mmt, well above the official USDA forecast of 52 mmt. The increase largely due to increased acres. This est. is in line with the BAGE however still below the Rosario Grain Exchange forecast of 67 mmt. The attache forecasts Argentine exports will reach 41 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 37 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Sharply mixed across the complex with beans $.08-$.10 higher, meal was steady to $2 lower while oil surged over $.02 ½ lb in the spot contract. Bean spreads were mixed while product spreads firmed. Next resistance for July-26 beans is LW’s high at $11.99. Support for July-26 meal is at its 50-day MA at $316.10. July-26 oil traded into new contract highs while spot futures traded to their highest level since July-23. Next resistance is 72.81. Spot board crush margins surged $.19 to $3.34 ½, closing near its modern day high at $3.40. Bean oil PV has jumped to a new all-time high at 52.6%. A continued jump in D4 RIN’s has increased biodiesel and RD profit margins. The demand for biofuels is on the rise, particularly in countries most impacted by the reduced crude oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. Markets are nervously monitoring developments in the Middle East ahead the expiration of the US/Iran ceasefire. Pres. Trump said he expects the US and Iran will agree to a “great deal” however are ready to bomb Iran if a deal is not signed. US Vice Pres. JD Vance is leading negotiations for the US in Pakistan. US plantings are at a record pace at 12%, well above 7% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 5%. The Delta and ECB are carrying the way while little progress in the WCB and northern Midwest. LA is 58% planted vs. 5-year Ave. of 32%, MS at 55% vs. 23% Ave. while TN is 50% vs. 9% Ave. Brazil’s harvest at 92% is now only slightly behind the 94% pace from YA. Safras & Mercado raised their production forecast .4 mmt to 178.1 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 180 mmt. The markets attention will gradually shift to Pres. Trump’s meeting in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi next month.
WHEAT
Prices were $.08-$.11 higher in choppy 2-sided trade. Above normal temperatures across much of the nation’s midsection this week. Rain is expected to favor the central and southern Midwest. Some precipitation is expected for drought areas in the SE and W. Kansas. MIAX ws the upside leader with July-26 trading to a 9-month high perhaps in a bid to attract more acres this spring. Recall prospective spring wheat acres at 9.415 mil. was the lowest in decades. Winter wheat ratings fell 4% to 30% G/E, a larger than expected drop. Overall ratings remain well below their historical average. Ratings in KS fell another 8% to only 24% while poor/VP increased to 41%. Nationally 20% of the crop is headed, vs. 14% YA and 5-year Ave. of 12%. In KS 15% of the crop was headed. India has approved the export of another 2.5 mmt of wheat, raising total export permissions to 5 mmt. India hasn’t been a notable exporter of wheat since 22/23 MY when they sold 5.4 mmt according to USDA data.
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