Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
Wheat followed energy commodities higher following Sunday night’s apparent breakdown of the US/Iran ceasefire. London followed suit, albeit on thin volume leaving the historically tight oldcrop/newcrop spread at a meagre £4.15 despite the ongoing risks to inputs posed by the closure of Hormuz.
Chicago wheat was the principal mover, given frosts reported across parts of the upper Midwest over the weekend though Kansas remains the main area of concern. Whilst there is some rain forecast for the Eastern half of the state later this week, temperatures trend above average. We await tonight’s crop progress report, with rain around the Great Lakes expected to have held up corn planting: analysts estimating 15% completion vs 18% on soybeans.
US corn export inspections were printed at 1.688 mmts, a 67kmt increase w.o.w. Soybean exports went up to 748kmts, a 10kmt increase from the previous week, whilst wheat exports came in at 518K, a 90% increase on the week prior.
The China Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 report forecasts domestic grain production at 733 million metric tons by 2030 and rise further to 753 million tons by 2035, 2.5% and 5.3% from a record harvest of 715 million tons in 2025.
Consequently, grain imports are projected to decline to by 115 million tons by 2035 from 140.56 million tons in 2025. Soybean imports are forecast to fall to 82.55 million tons, down 26.2% from a record 111.83 million tons in 2025.
Both Jordan and Taiwan announced wheat tenders for this week.
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