Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 20-24 April 2026

The very fragile ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon and the currently slated end to the one in Iran on Tuesday, will remain the focal points. Oil prices and above all US equities are discounting an extension of the ceasefire and taking the White House assertion of a deal ‘fairly soon’ at face value, despite a long and well documented history of ambiguity, and abrupt and erratic changes of rhetoric. The flow of headlines around a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz remains plentiful and very discombobulated, with meticulous attention needed to details rather than headlines, which often omit key details, both from the rush to ‘be first’, as well as poorly written communiques / social media comments or ambiguous press conferences. The fact is, the Strait has not re-opened in any way thus far that would allow what would be a very gradual resumption of ‘normal’ traffic, and without many Iranian ‘demands’ being met this will likely continue to be the case. Speculation around the early May summit between the US and Chinese leaders, above all in the context of the Middle East conflicts and the numerous other trade and geopolitical tensions, is also likely to start getting some traction.

Statistically, the new week brings flash PMIs, German Ifo and numerous other surveys, US and UK Retail Sales, UK CPI and labour data, Canada and Japan CPI, a less busy roster of central bank speakers includes the Senate Banking Committee Fed chair nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh, along with the March ECB minutes. The flow of Q1 Corporate earnings picks up worldwide, with a good number of US ‘beats’ thus far, even if outlooks have been very mixed and are likely to remain so, though the picture in Europe and Asia has been rather more mixed, even if AI/Tech related companies remain in rude health, and supply chain challenges are likely to loom in many cases. China’s Loan Prime Rates are seen unchanged, as are rates in Indonesia and Turkey, but Philippines BSP is expected to hike rates 25 bps due to energy pressures and a weak PHPs, while a 50 bps rate cut is seen in Russia.  The week ending May Day/Labour day public holidays will make for a shorter trading week, with the UK closed the following Monday.

** PMIs/surveys:

Flash PMIs are in broad terms expected to show a marginal deterioration in Europe and the UK (also likely in Japan), and a slight uptick in the US, with Germany’s Ifo, French Business Confidence, Eurozone Consumer Confidence seen echoing PMIs. Price and Supplier Delivery sub-indices will, of course, get a lot of attention along with any indications that supply chain issues are hitting Output and/or Orders.

** U.S.A.:

The key point in respect of this week’s US Retail Sales is that this is a value not a volume measure. Thus, the forecast 1.4% m/m jump in headline and ex-Autos will reflect the surge in gasoline prices, while the 0.2% m/m on the ex-Autos & Gas and ‘Control Group’ measures anticipate evidence of consumer spending restraint on other items. The remainder of the week’s data schedule is unlikely to get much attention, comprising Pending Home Sales, Business Inventories, and various regional Fed surveys and the final reading on Michigan Sentiment. There will however, be plenty of focus on Warsh’s Fed Chair Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearings, above all how he justifies the idea of cutting rates further given that current economic conditions do not offer much justification. His stated intention to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and views on Fed independence (from political interference) will also be in the spotlight. Actual confirmation of his appointment remains contingent on the Dept of Justice (DoJ) concluding its criminal investigation into the Fed renovation project, with Republican Senator Tillis having said that while he supports Warsh’s nomination, he will not vote for it until that investigation has been concluded.

** U.K.:  

Tuesday’s labour data has both March and pre-Middle East war February prints, with March HMRC Payrolls forecast to dip -3K after an unexpected 20K rise in February, while Average Weekly Earnings are seen declining 0.3 ppt in headline terms to 3.6% y/y, and easing 0.1 ppt on the core Private ex-bonus measure to a reasonably well contained 3.2%, with the Unemployment Rate holding at 5.2%. This would fit with a continued stabilization of labour demand. However, the focus will be on Wednesday’s CPI, with the ca. 9.0% rise in road fuel prices pacing an expected 0.6% m/m headline rise to push the y/y rate up to 3.3% (vs. Feb 3.0%), though core and Services CPI are seen unchanged at a still lofty 3.2% and 4.3% respectively. PPI Input is seen very adversely impacted by rising energy and commodity prices with a jump of 3.0% m/m driving the y/y rate up to 3.4% from 0.5%, with a still modest pass through seen in PPI Output at 1.0% m/m 2.4% y/y, though as much attention will be paid to Price sub-indices in the PMIs and the CBI Industrial Trends survey. Friday’s March Retail Sales are expected to be flat m/m following on from a -0.4% in February and 2.0% m/m jump in January, which would overall point to a reasonable contribution to Q1 GDP from Private Consumption (though data quality issues remain a major talking point).

* Elsewhere, Canada’s CPI will, as elsewhere, evidence energy price pressures with a 1.1% m/m jump to take the y/y rate to 2.6% from 1.8%, but the BoC will likely remain focussed on the broader picture, with Median core CPI seen unchanged at 2.3% y/y, per see showing non-energy pressures well contained (for the time being). Japan’s National CPI is forecast to show little change on headline (1.4% y/y, down 0.1 ppt) or core measures (ex-Fresh Food 1.7% and ex-Fresh Food & Energy 2.5%), though Services PPI expected to push up to 2.9% y/y. But with BoJ’s Ueda not offering any clear rate hike signals on the end April rate decision, this run of price data is unlikely to change market views on the outcome. Japan’s Trade data have been volatile due to base effects, with potential energy supply disruptions to be thrown into the mix, but strong demand AI related goods demand is anticipated to see Exports jump 11.0% y/y, with Imports easing back to 7.0%.

* In the commodities space, the focus outside of Middle East developments will be on various earnings (Baker Hughes, Cleveland-Cliffs, CMOC, Eni, Freeport-McMoRan, Halliburton, Newmont, SLB, Zijin Mining), Q1 production reports (BHP, Lynas, Rio Tinto, Santos, South 32) and various conferences, amongst others: FT Commodities, S&P Global Sugar and Columbia Global Energy Summit. But supply chain disruptions (above all to key processing components and other raw materials), as well as increasing bouts of disconnects between physical and derivatives prices will remain the overarching themes.

* There are 94 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, as the focus shifts away from financials to tech and real economy companies, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: 3M, ABB, Aluminum Corp of China aka Chalco, America Movil, American Express, Ameriprise Financial, ASM International, AT&T, Baker Hughes, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank of Ningbo, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway, Blackstone, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Canon, Capital One Financial, Capitec Bank, CBRE, CenterPoint Energy, Charter Communications, China Shenhua Energy, China Telecom, China Unicom Hong Kong, Chubb, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Citic Securities, CME Group, Comcast, Crown Castle, CSX, Danaher, Dassault Systemes, Digital Realty Trust, Disco, DNB Bank, Dover, Dow, DR Horton, East Money Information, Elevance Health, Eni, Eoptolink Technology, EQT, Fanuc, Freeport-McMoRan, GE Vernova, General Electric, Grupo Financiero Banorte, Guotai Haitong Securities, Halliburton, Hartford Insurance, HCA Healthcare, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank, Heineken, Hexagon, Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network, Honeywell International, Huntington Bancshares, IBM, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Intel, Interactive Brokers, Intuitive Surgical, Investor, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, KB Financial, Keurig Dr Pepper, Keyence, Kuehne + Nagel International, Lam Research, Lockheed Martin, Moody’s, MSCI, Muyuan Foods, Nasdaq, Nestle India, Newmont Mining, NextEra Energy, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Nokia, Nomura Holdings, Nordea Bank, Norfolk Southern, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, Orange, Otis Worldwide, PG&E, Philip Morris International, Ping An Bank, Procter & Gamble, Raymond James Financial, Renesas Electronics, Rollins, Roper Technologies, RTX, Saab, Samsung Biologics, Sandvik, Sanofi, SAP, Schindler Holding, ServiceNow, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry, Shennan Circuits, Shinhan Financial, SK Hynix, SLB, Steel Dynamics, STMicroelectronics, Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Suzhou TFC Optical Communication, Svenska Handelsbanken, Synchrony Financial, TE Connectivity, Teck Resources, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Union Pacific, United Airlines, United Rentals, UnitedHealth, Vertiv, Volvo, Wanhua Chemical, Waste Connections, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies, Zhongji Innolight, Zijin Mining.