Global Ag News For April 16.2026

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA March US soy crush below forecasts at 226.161 mln bushels

The U.S. soybean crush in March reached the second-highest level for any month on record and the loftiest ever for the third month of the year, but fell short of most analyst estimates, according to monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data issued on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which account for nearly all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 226.161 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 8.3% from the 208.785 million bushels processed in February and up 16.3% from the 194.551 million bushels crushed in March 2025.

The March 2026 total reflected a daily crush rate of 7.296 million bushels a day, the third-strongest daily pace on record, after the average crush pace reached an all-time high in February, according to NOPA data.

The report included a processing plant in Gibson City, Illinois, for the first time after it was acquired by NOPA member Bunge, according to NOPA.

The March crush had been expected to jump to a record 229.978 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from 11 analysts surveyed by Reuters. Their estimates ranged from 223.200 million to 235.600 million bushels, with a median of 229.546 million bushels.

U.S. crush capacity has grown to record levels as strong demand for soyoil to make biofuel prompted processors to build new plants and expand existing ones in recent years.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of March 31 declined to 2.039 billion pounds, down 2.0% from 2.080 billion pounds at the end of February but up 36.1% from the 1.498 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

The total was below all trade estimates which averaged 2.173 billion pounds, according to estimates from eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 2.049 billion to 2.325 billion pounds, with a median of 2.174 billion pounds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 1/8 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $2.70; Soyoil up 0.54.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 29 in SRW, up 48 3/4 in HRW, up 2/5 in HRS; Corn is up 10; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil up 0.93.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $14.20; Soyoil down 1.03.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 18.8% in SRW, up 24.5% in HRW, up 13.8% in HRS; Corn is up 2.6%; Soybeans up 13.3%; Soymeal up 13.2%; Soyoil up 42.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal up 11; Soyoil up 27; Palm oil up 2; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 4.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 4 ringgit (+0.09%) at 4476.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 575 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 187 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 15 were: SRW Wheat up 3,976 contracts, HRW Wheat down 975, Corn down 10,378, Soybeans up 21,537, Soymeal up 12,134, Soyoil up 11,709.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmer temperatures are expected across much of the U.S. over the next 10 days, wet conditions persist in the Northwest, Northern and Southern Plains, while dry weather is raising concerns for winter wheat areas in the Central Plains.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cooler temperatures with moderate wet spells will persist across the central Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s Southeast/Center West turn dry, and wet spells remains confined to the far South and Northwest.
• EUROPE: Central Europe is expected to experience near‑normal to warmer‑than‑average conditions over the next 15 days, with continued wet spells across southern Germany, Spain, southern France, central Poland, and the Alps, while drier conditions prevail elsewhere.
• ASIA: Dry spells persist across central and northern China, while heavy rains may delay sugarcane harvesting in southern China. Meanwhile, dry conditions favor the winter wheat harvest in India and sugarcane harvesting in Thailand, while wet spells are supporting coffee development in Vietnam.
• AFRICA: Wet spells may support cocoa development in Ghana and Ivory Coast, as well as coffee growth in Ethiopia, but could delay corn harvesting in South Africa.
• TELECONNECTIONS: MJO Phase 8-1 is forecast to bring wet conditions across South America and Africa through late April.

 

Northern Plains: A system and strong cold front will move through on Thursday and Friday, bringing through a mix of rain and snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures may not make it above freezing on Saturday in some areas. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

Central/Southern Plains: The region continues to be in the zone of active weather on Wednesday, though it continues to favor eastern areas with precipitation over the west, which has become extremely dry for developing winter wheat. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again. Cold air will bring frosts over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, with a slow-moving system likely bringing more widespread precipitation to the region. That may include the dry areas in the west, but to what degree is uncertain.

Midwest: Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, favoring the Great Lakes, and leaving areas near the south, especially the Ohio Valley, rather dry. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork in areas where it has been raining, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. The active weather continues for the rest of the week, with a strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in later next week or weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

Delta: Drought continues to be a major issue in the region while planting moves along quickly. A front moving through on Thursday may bring through a few showers and thunderstorms, but it’ll be one moving through on Saturday that should carry some widespread rainfall. Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. Prospects are a little more promising next week as a system slowly moves through the country, perhaps bringing through more widespread precipitation. If the forecast changes, though, conditions could worsen.

Canadian Prairies: Temperatures have been cold this spring and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front will drop south through the region through Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and accumulating snow, followed by extremely cold temperatures into the weekend. Some areas may not make it above freezing. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week. The overall cold conditions are causing problems for soil temperatures, and the snow isn’t helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

Brazil: A system will move into the south and west with scattered showers for Wednesday and Thursday, but will quickly return to being isolated showers. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall into next week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May.

Argentina: A system moved back into the north with heavy rain on Tuesday, which continues on Wednesday. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week, with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays and flooding issues.

 

The player sheet for 4/15 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 17,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• PROVISIONAL SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased about 12,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil in an international tender on Thursday. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are still possible later.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 15, with offers having to remain valid until April 16, they said. The durum can be sourced from optional origins. Volumes in Algeria’s tenders are nominal and the country frequently purchases more than the volumes initially sought.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 metric tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 9.

• Corn est. range 900k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,338k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 700k tons, with avg of 375k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.5% to 26.699M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.995 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.12m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.086m

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 16.67 Million Metric Tons In April – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 16.67 MILLION METRIC TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 15.78 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.10 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.71 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Brazil agricultural exports hit record revenue for October

Brazil’s agribusiness exports totaled $15.49 billion in October, a new record for the month and up 8.5% from a year earlier, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

• The results were driven by record revenue from exports of products such as beef and sugar, as well as by high coffee prices.
• Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, coffee, cotton, sugar, beef and chicken, and a top supplier of corn and pork.
• China remained the top destination with $4.95 billion in purchases, accounting for 32% of total exports last month, supported mainly by soy and beef shipments.
• Other major buyers included the European Union, the United States, Egypt, India and Iran, the ministry said.
• January-October exports totaled $141.97 billion, up 1.4% from the same period a year earlier.

 

Russia boosts exports of sunflower oil to India 50% in Q1 to nearly $600 mln – Agroexport

MOSCOW. April 16 (Interfax) – Russia exported sunflower oil to India worth $592 million in Q1 2026, double the amount compared to the same period last year, while in physical terms, shipments rose 1.6-fold to over 456,000 tonnes, the Agroexport federal center said, citing expert estimates.

The center recalled that exports totaled over 1.1 million tonnes worth approximately $1.3 billion for the entire year 2025.

The record year was 2024, when over 2.2 million tonnes worth nearly $2 billion were shipped.

 

France Corn Area Seen Down 10% as Farmers Curb Costly Fertilizer

France’s corn-planted areas may shrink 10% as farmers have started leaving lands fallow or shifting to crops that require less fertilizers, according to FranceAgriMer.

• Farmers may instead plant sunflowers or other spring crops, Benoit Pietrement, chair of the grains council at crops office FranceAgriMer, said in a call with journalists
• Pietrement sees marginal purchases of fertilizers among grains growers, a dynamic that may impact crop yields in the new season
• Pietrement himself left portions of his farm fallow to reduce costs, which have risen amid disruptions from conflict in the Middle East
  • “I’m seeing some of this happening already this year, and I’m concerned that in 2027 it could become more widespread, driven by fertilizer prices”

 

Canada wheat production seen lower in 2026/27 after record harvest

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.8 [33.9–37.6] MILLION TONS

Canada’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is projected to decline to approximately 35.8 [33.9–37.6] million tons, down from the record 39.96 million tons harvested in 2025/26. Last season’s exceptional outcome was supported by highly favorable growing conditions, which resulted in above‑average yields across the country’s primary wheat‑producing regions.

The expected year‑on‑year reduction largely reflects a return to more typical yield performance, alongside a modest decline in planted area. Wheat acreage is preliminarily estimated at around 10.8 million hectares, representing a 1.3% decrease from the previous season, as producers may marginally increase plantings of oilseeds.

Soil moisture conditions across major producing areas are generally adequate at present, although pockets of dryness persist in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Looking ahead, early‑season weather signals introduce a degree of uncertainty. Long‑term LSEG forecasts for the critical June–August crop development period suggest the potential for slightly warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Canadian Prairies. Should these conditions materialize, they could place some pressure on yield potential later in the season.

 

2026/27 India wheat production steady despite recent weather challenges

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 117.6 [114.0-121.5] MILLION TONS, Unchanged FROM LAST UPDATE

With harvesting activities well underway across much of the wheat belt, India’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 117.6 [114.0–121.5] million tons, unchanged from the last update. Despite some episodes of above‑average temperatures in March in northern India, overall temperatures over the past 30 days have generally been near normal to cooler across key wheat‑producing regions, accompanied by above‑average precipitation in many areas. Unseasonal rains and hailstorms in late March and early April provided relief from potential heat stress by cooling the crop but also led to localized lodging, grain quality concerns, and harvesting delays, particularly in parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.

Outside Punjab and Haryana, satellite imagery analysis points to broadly favorable late‑season crop conditions, with vegetation density at or above the long‑term median across most major wheat‑growing zones in other key wheat‑producing regions.

Short‑term forecasts indicate a mix of near‑normal to warmer temperatures with limited additional precipitation across much of the wheat‑growing belt over the coming 14 days. This should generally support the ongoing wheat harvest campaign.

 

2026/27 EU‑27 and UK wheat production outlook improves slightly on supportive conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 EU-27 + UK WHEAT PRODUCTION: 147.9 [140.5-155.3] MILLION TONS, Up 0.5% FROM LAST UPDATE

Wheat production across the EU‑27 and the UK for the 2026/27 season has been revised modestly higher, with the forecast edging up by 0.5% to 147.9 [140.5–155.3] million tons. This adjustment primarily reflects an improved outlook for EU-27 soft wheat production, now projected at 127.4 million tons, while the forecast for durum wheat remains unchanged at 7.6 million tons. The upward revision is underpinned by generally favourable weather conditions, which have led to small improvements in production prospects in Germany, France, and Bulgaria.

Over the past 30 days, weather conditions have broadly supported crop development across much of the region. Temperatures have been mostly near to above seasonal norms, while precipitation has remained below average in many areas, despite some localised pockets of wetter conditions. However, parts of Central Europe continue to experience low soil moisture, which warrants monitoring as the season progresses.

Crop condition ratings in France remain encouraging. As of April 6, 84% of French soft wheat crops were rated in good or excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and notably higher than the 75% reported a year earlier, according to FranceAgriMer. Conditions for French durum wheat were similarly stable, with 81% assessed as good or excellent, unchanged week on week.

Looking ahead, short‑term forecasts suggest slightly above‑average temperatures across Northern and Central Europe in the coming week, followed by a cooling trend thereafter. In Southern and Southeastern Europe, conditions are expected to remain near normal to slightly warmer over the next two weeks, with low to moderate rainfall. Seasonal outlooks for May point to near‑normal to slightly warmer temperatures and average precipitation, which, if realised, should continue to provide a broadly supportive environment for wheat development.

 

Ukraine wheat production outlook remains stable under generally favorable conditions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 22.8 [21.7-24.0] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Ukraine’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is maintained at 22.8 [21.7 – 24.0] million tons. Excluding Crimea and the occupied oblasts, output is projected at approximately 21.7 million tons. According to the Ministry of Economy, as of April 13, Ukrainian farmers had planted around 128,500 hectares of spring wheat, representing 69% of the forecasted sowing area.

Over the past 30 days, much of the wheat belt experienced near normal to slightly above‑average temperatures alongside below‑average precipitation. Warmer conditions supported the resumption of winter crop vegetation, while earlier snow cover contributed positively to soil moisture replenishment.

Looking ahead, weather forecasts for the coming ten days suggest low to moderate precipitation and near‑normal to cooler temperatures across most wheat‑growing areas. Expected rainfall should be particularly beneficial for parts of western Ukraine, where localized soil moisture deficits persist.

 

“Skyrocketing”: Corn exports soared, bringing in more than $2.5 billion in just two months

NoticiasFinancieras – English

Corn Boom in Argentina. Against the backdrop of a harvest that is shaping up to be the largest in history, the pace of corn exports has accelerated and has already set a record for this time of year. Between March and April, exports totaling 12.3 million tons were reported, well above the nearly 7 million tons recorded during the same period last year. In terms of value, that volume represents between US$2.5 billion and US$2.6 billion.

“The figures for corn exports are truly staggering.12.3 million tons were registered for shipment in March and April. It’s outrageous; this is an absolute record for corn , ” noted market analyst Javier Preciado Patiño. These figures come from the Affidavits of Foreign Sales (DJVE), the mandatory registration that exporters must submit to ship grain.

In addition, the specialist added that this level of activity occurred amid strong commercial activity: “The pace of operations in April is very high, with around 200,000 tons per day between settled prices and price fixings [in the latter case, the grain was delivered but the product’s value was not yet determined]. In the first seven business days of the month, nearly 1.1 million tons were traded .”

Due to scrapie in the country: the leading sheep meat exporter has seen 1,200 tons of business affected

That sales level goes hand in hand with the size of the harvest. “For corn, we are facing a very large harvest, with an exportable surplus that would be no less than 40 million tons and could even be higher , ” said Preciado Patiño.

The exportable surplus is, essentially, the volume remaining available for sale abroad once domestic demand has been met. In this case, that figure is boosted by strong production growth: the 2025/26 season is on track to be a record-breaker, with a harvest that could reach 67 million tons—some 17 million more than the previous cycle .

The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) projected exports of 43 million tons, a record for the country and an increase of two million compared to the 41 million estimated a month ago.

He noted that the international competitiveness of Argentine corn played a role. “Argentine corn is highly competitive in various markets, not only in Southeast Asia but also in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East,” said Preciado Patiño. As he explained, Argentina is managing to offset logistical differences and take advantage of the off-season in the Northern Hemisphere—that is, selling at times when other countries have less supply.

Following the same logic, Bruno Todone of AZ-Group noted that 36% of corn production has already been sold, up from 24% last year and also from 32% in the 2023/24 season . “Corn has been selling at a good pace in the first months of 2026, against the backdrop of a bountiful harvest , ” he explained.

Another figure helps explain the level of activity: exporters have already purchased nearly 21 million tons, of which about 14 million have fixed prices . This level of purchasing accounts for part of what is seen in export declarations, as companies need to record sales to fulfill these commitments.

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, the pace of sales may show some changes. As the soybean harvest progresses, experts noted that it is common for many producers to focus on selling the oilseed and leave the corn in the field to lose moisture naturally, which helps reduce costs. Later on, with the arrival of late-season corn, there is usually a new surge in sales.

For soybeans, the sales pace is more moderate. According to AZ-Group, with an estimated harvest of between 49 and 50 million tons, soybean sales are proceeding at a more moderate pace. So far, about 22% of production has been sold, just above last year’s 19% , but after a more active start, sales have stabilized. “It remains at low levels , ” noted Todone.

In this scenario—with higher volumes, an active export market, and a strong sales pace— corn stands out as one of the main foreign exchange generators at the start of the season . “Today, the greatest dynamism is seen in corn , ” summarized Preciado Patiño. And the numbers support this trend.

In this context, the agricultural sector as a whole could contribute around US$35.375 billion in 2026, according to estimates by the Rosario Stock Exchange, driven by higher production and export volumes.

 

UN Awaits Go-Ahead to Move Fertilizer Through Hormuz Strait

The United Nations is ready to set up a corridor to allow fertilizer to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz and reach farmers for the planting season — but doing so hinges on a political agreement to go forward, according to a top UN official.

“The UN is ready — we have the teams identified, we have the system prepared, we have the technical design of the mechanism. We just need a political and diplomatic solution that allows us to start,” UN Undersecretary General Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is overseeing the initiative, said in an interview.

Talks with UN member states are underway in a bid to reach an international agreement, da Silva said. He didn’t share who was involved but said he’s having “extensive conversations with countries in the region, not only those that are more direct affected and involved in the conflict, but also globally.”

The Hormuz strait has remained effectively shut since the war began. Iran was initially responsible for the halt and the US followed with its own blockade of ships leaving or entering Iranian ports on Monday. Negotiators from the two countries held ceasefire talks in Pakistan last weekend but were unable to reach a deal on ending the conflict.

The intensifying standoff has revived the push to open a safe shipping route for fertilizer and other goods to prevent a humanitarian crisis. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, shipments of fertilizer have ground to a halt — leaving farmers without the inputs needed to secure plentiful harvests and countries already exposed to hunger even more vulnerable. The Middle East is a vital supplier of nutrients to grow staples like corn, wheat and rice, and a key source of ingredients for their production elsewhere.

The International Rescue Committee, which has urged the creation of a “sustained humanitarian corridor’ to allow life-saving aid to transit the strait, said the constraint on liquefied natural gas and cooking gas as well as fertilizer is unfolding into a “food security timebomb,” in a statement. The group said it has $130,000 worth of pharmaceutical supplies destined for Sudan — already suffering a humanitarian crisis — stuck in Dubai.

Any deal to allow such a corridor would need to be agreed to by Iran and the US, who are considering an extension of their ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks. Experts say an agreement on a shipping route for fertilizer and aid could help Tehran and Washington demonstrate good will, without either losing leverage in broader negotiations.

“The challenge right now is there’s two parties of conflict saying no to everything because there’s leverage in keeping the strait closed,” said Sam Vigersky, international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The easiest place to say yes is on humanitarian aid because it requires no leverage being given up from either side.”

“A humanitarian corridor is not a point of weakness for either but rather a point of good faith,” said Vigersky, who was the lead US humanitarian negotiator at the UN until 2024.

The idea of establishing a corridor was presented by the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency responsible for shipping safety, at a meeting of more than 40 nations convened by the UK earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail private conversations. But it gained little traction initially because diplomats wanted to focus on negotiating the full reopening of the strait, the people said.

Discussions on a corridor, however, have revived as broader negotiations stall and worries mount about an escalation of the US naval blockade.

The chief economist of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, Máximo Torero, highlighted concerns about higher food prices, projecting that global fertilizer prices could spike as much as 20% in the first half of this year if the conflict continues. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Sudan, Brazil and a number of African nations are most vulnerable.

Da Silva leads the UN Office for Project Services, which focuses on infrastructure and project management. His task force draws on previous UN efforts such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, an agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN that saw millions of tons of grains mobilized and markets stabilized in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The new fertilizer mechanism will address issues including “monitoring, verification, and reporting,” da Silva said.

Fertilizer supply disruptions are hitting at a critical moment in the planting season.

“If we miss that window, then we will be talking about humanitarian aid,” da Silva said. “In my discussions, I am making it clear why this is needed, what the consequences of inaction will be.”

 

China’s Q1 pork output up 4.2% from a year earlier, lags expectations

China’s pork production rose 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, government data showed on Thursday, as hog producers accelerated slaughtering to address a supply glut.

Output from January through March in the world’s largest pork-producing country surged to 16.69 million metric tons, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

“Pig capacity reduction has been lower than expected,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst from Shanghai JC Intelligence. “Consumption is weak, so hog prices can’t rise.”

Cash hog prices hovered around 8.7 yuan ($1.28) per kg this week, falling from 14.9 yuan per kg a year earlier, according to data from MySteel, a consultancy.

Chinese farmers slaughtered 200.26 million hogs in the first quarter of 2026, up 2.8% from a year earlier, according to the NBS data.

“Even though they’re reducing herd size, the pace of that reduction is still fairly modest, but output is growing quite quickly – this shows productivity really is rising very fast,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

“Pork prices may pick up in the third quarter this year. Right now, the oversupply situation is still very serious.”

Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector is struggling with industry overcapacity and weak consumer demand.

Authorities have intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity, urging major firms to reduce breeding sows, keep hog weight to around 120 kg and tighten credits and subsidies.

 

CONTINUING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA AND A WARMING TREND INTO LATE APRIL WILL BODE WELL FOR WHEAT/RAPESEED PLANTINGS

Weather Anomaly Severity: Low

Crops impacted: Sugarcane/Wheat/Rapeseed

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC AIFS

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens (rainfall pattern most consistent with MJO trends)

Forecast confidence: High through 10 days, low after that due to overall pattern uncertainty

Model Change (from previous update): Warmer

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• The past week featured cool temperatures (1-2 °C below normal) along the western/southern regions of Australia, while the northern/western areas were 10-20 mm drier than normal.
• Moderate warmth (2-4 °C above normal) will expand slowly eastward from Western Australia throughout the next couple weeks, likely peaking in the 11-15 day period.
• 15-day rainfall totals will be 15-30 mm (~0.6-1.2 in) drier than normal spanning South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales.
• Western Australia is likely to trend warm/dry in the final days of April, while areas to the east may experience increasingly cool/wet conditions.
• Moderate warmth and dry weather into late April over most of the continent will support a rapid planting pace for wheat/rapeseed, with minimal impacts on sugarcane at this stage.

 

SHORT-TERM WARMTH TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA, WHILE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS SPLIT

Weather anomaly severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee, Sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 10 days, low in the 11-15 day period

Model change from previous runs: Drier in Pampas region of Argentina and far southern Brazil

Significant weather anomalies:

Brazil:

• Warmth between 3-6 °C above normal in Center West, Southeast, and Southern Brazil during the next 10 days. Potential for continued warmth into the 11-15 day period.
• High probability of dry weather in Southeast Brazil as well as much of the Center West and Southern Brazil. 10-day deviations between 20-30 mm below normal. Higher uncertainty in the 11-15 day time frame.
• Warm and dry weather across Brazil should favor harvest activities for first corn and soybean crops, while acting unfavorably for second corn development.

Argentina:

• Warmth will persist across Argentina during the next 5 days, with anomalies between 1-3 °C above normal. This will change in the 6-10 day period when cooler conditions between 1-3 °C below normal take hold of much of the Pampas region. Uncertainty is high for temperatures beyond 10 days.
• High precipitation between 10-30 mm above normal is expected across the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 10 days. Confidence is lower after 10 days, though ensemble models point towards a return to dryness.
• Wet weather across Argentina’s core crop regions could further delay harvest operations throughout.

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.