Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
US/Iran potential resumption of negotiations in focus, on lighter day for major statistics; Fed beige Book, IMF Fiscal Monitor, busy run of central bank speakers and further US financial earnings also in view.
- Ceasefire extension hopes are well and good, but so much else to consider in terms of longer lasting factors
- US Import Prices ex-energy seen echoing CPI and PPI, with large energy boost, but modest ex-energy rise; NAHB survey seen little impacted by mortgage rate jump
EVENTS PREVIEW
The Middle East conflict, specifically ongoing communications between the US about arranging a further round of ceasefire negotiations remain front and centre, and clearly supporting risk assets optimism, along with US Q1 earnings expectations. While there is good reason to believe that the worst of the military conflict may be over (though Israel remains a wild card) and tensions remain high as does mutual mistrust, it remains unclear where this would lead: a frozen conflict or a broader treaty type agreement (rather than the loose framework agreements that have typically been seen with the current US administration), which allows the (likely gradual) resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Eminently, the complexities of assessing and repairing the extensive damage and destruction from the war will take a much longer time, with disruptions and longer-term strategic re-routing due to security concerns set to continue for a protracted period.
Be that as it may, the day’s statistical schedule is unlikely to get much market reaction, featuring the much better than expected Japan February Machinery Orders and a steep decline in the monthly Reuters Tankan to digest, ahead of US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market Index surveys, Import Prices, Fed Beige Book and TIC Portfolio Flows. The IMF publishes its Fiscal Monitor, following on from yesterday’s World Economic Outlook, which sensibly adopted a ‘scenarios’ approach, with the central scenario assuming a modest hit to global GDP, though in the detail there was a sharp 2.0 ppt downgrade to Middle East/Central Asia for 2026, though a sharp 4.6% y/y rebound is assumed for 2027 for the region. Notably, the IMF urged central banks to exercise some restraint before raising rates, a sentiment echoed later in the day by ECB’s Lagarde. That IMF scenario sees only a modest hit from temporarily higher energy prices, though this is difficult to square with a Oil prices rising 21.4% y/y this year to an average $82.22 (this looks to be optimistic), but only falling 7.6% y/y to $75.97 in 2027. Of interest in the Fiscal Monitor will be how much damage to government finances both in the G7/G20 and above all to EM/Developing economies. Otherwise, there are a deluge of central bank speakers, and earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, and the already published results from China’s CATL.
USA: Import Prices are expected to surge 2.3% m/m, but only a very modest 0.3% m/m rise is seen ex-Energy, which would offer some short-term comfort for markets on inflation, though it is much too early to make any judgement of how much pressure will emerge near-term, or how long these price pressures will persist. There will probably be more focus on the Fed’s Beige Book, which will be parsed for the war’s impact on growth, jobs, prices and above all on business outlooks. In the housing sector, the rise in mortgage rates is surprisingly expected to have little impact on the NAHB Housing Market Index (37 vs. prior 38).
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Disclaimer:
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. The views expressed reflect market conditions and publicly available information as of the date of writing and may change without notice. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider their own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.
This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. The views expressed reflect market conditions and publicly available information as of the date of writing and may change without notice. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider their own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
ADM Named to FORTUNE’s Most Admired Company List
January 23, 2026
