Global Ag News For April 8.2026

TOP HEADLINES

India Rules Out Sugar Export Ban; No Cut in Veg Oil Import Duty

India has no plans to ban sugar exports, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said, easing concerns that the government could divert more of the commodity to make ethanol after crude oil supplies were disrupted due to the Middle East conflict.

• The government is examining the industry’s demand to increase the minimum sale price of sugar, Chopra said at an event in New Delhi on Tuesday
• There is no proposal to cut import duties on vegetable oils
• The condition of the wheat crop in the country looks good, he said
  • NOTE: Harvesting of the winter-sown wheat has started in many parts of the country
• The government is also examining the sugar industry’s demand to allow the use of ethanol-based stoves for cooking

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 18 in SRW, down 16 3/4 in HRW, down 1/7 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil down 2.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 24 1/4 in HRW, down 1/5 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 1.64.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 36 1/4 in SRW, down 44 3/4 in HRW, down 1/3 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 1.48.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 14.4% in SRW, up 14.9% in HRW, up 9.4% in HRS; Corn is up 0.9%; Soybeans up 12.3%; Soymeal up 6.8%; Soyoil up 40.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil down 174; Palm oil down 304; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 179.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 179 ringgit (-3.76%) at 4586.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 197 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 7 were: SRW Wheat up 2,159 contracts, HRW Wheat up 713, Corn down 6,240, Soybeans up 1,640, Soymeal down 648, Soyoil down 456.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: The southern U.S. Plains will receive heavy precipitation between 25-125 mm (~1 to 5 in) above normal in some areas during the next two weeks, while the Northeast and Southeast U.S. remain very dry
• SOUTH AMERICA: A mild temperature pattern within 1-2 °C of normal is expected across Brazil during the next two weeks
• EUROPE: Dry conditions are likely to prevail across much of Europe during the next two weeks
• EAST ASIA: A warm and wet weather pattern is expected across China during the next 10-15 days
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will strengthen significantly during the rest of the month, having increased impacts on global weather patterns

WIDESPREAD WARMTH TO TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE WEEK AHEAD

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (warmth)

Crops impacted: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High

Model Change (from previous update): Warmer across most of the U.S.

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• Warmth up to 12 °F above normal will be present in the Western U.S. during the next 5 days. This warmth will move east across the Central and Eastern U.S. during the 6-15 day time frame, with anomalies between 8-15 °F above normal.
• Significant rainfall in the southern U.S. Plains, with anomalies between 25-100 mm (~1 to 4 in) above normal from southern Kansas through Texas.
• Dry weather between 25-50 mm (~1 to 2 in) below normal in the southern Midwest U.S., Ohio River Valley, Southeast U.S., and Mississippi River Delta region.
• Latest EC extended run depicts widespread warmth through the next 4 weeks, with regional dry weather in the Southeast/Northeast U.S. and wet weather between Texas and Wisconsin.
• Widespread warmth should favor croplands throughout North America through much of April. The lack of extreme rainfall in the forecast should bode well for early plantings as well.

 

Northern Plains: Heavy rain and snow moved through the region over the holiday weekend, though much of the snow has melted except over eastern North Dakota. Another system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with scattered showers. Another will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into early next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

Midwest: A large system moved through over the weekend with widespread heavy precipitation, including mixed precipitation over the far north. Areas in drought saw some of the heaviest precipitation, which should improve soil moisture for planting and early growth in much of the region. Colder temperatures early this week should hold back planting more than soil moisture at this point. A system will move through on Wednesday night and stall a front across the south for Thursday where showers may continue into the weekend, and perhaps lift back northward again as well. With more showers expected next week as a system moves through, there is plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for planting. Some areas may have the opposite problem with too much rainfall that may cause delays.

Delta: A front moved through on Saturday into Sunday and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of heavy rain fell as well. With how deep the drought is in the region, the rainfall has certainly helped, but will not wipe away the drought. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture.

Brazil: A front will move through over the next day or two and produce widespread showers across the south, and a brief burst of moderate rain across the central, but precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn as the end of the wet season rainfall is rather disappointing for many areas.

Argentina: A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country over the last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

Europe: A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, mostly across Spain and then Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

Black Sea: A system is stalling out and will produce rounds of showers for the rest of the week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

 

The player sheet for 4/7 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, and sellers of 4,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender, traders said.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is April 8.
• UREA TENDER: India, the world’s largest urea importer, was looking to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of the key crop nutrient to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Bids for the tender must be submitted by April 15.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 3 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen unchanged from the previous week at 1.075m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.161m bbl vs 25.991m a week ago

 

Brazil March Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Coffee exports fell 31% in March from a year ago
• Cotton exports rose 45% y/y
• Pork exports rose 28% y/y

 

Russian Wheat Exports Seen at 3.7M Tons in April: Rusagrotrans

Russia’s wheat exports may reach as much as 3.7 million tons this month, which would be a 55% increase from a year earlier, according to the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans.

• Shipments include exports to Eurasian Economic Union
• Shipments totaled 2.39 mln in April 2025
  • Five-year average is roughly 3 mln
• Over the next two weeks, heavy rain in the south will help winter crops grow
  • “Temperatures will fall but stay above freezing, so they won’t harm the crops”: Rusagrotrans

 

Argus Raises Russia 2026-27 Wheat Output Forecast to 88.7m Tons

Russia is forecast to harvest 88.7m tons of wheat for the 2026-27 season, according to Argus estimates.

• Forecast raised from November projection of 86.5m tons on better visibility of higher yields, larger planted area and strong crop conditions after an Argus virtual wheat crop tour in March
  • It’s still slightly below the estimated 2025-26 output of 90.4m tons
• Sees slightly higher yields projected at 4.04 t/ha, up from the November estimate and above the 3.93 t/ha estimated for 2025-26, broadly in line with the long-term trend
  • Revises winter planted up to 15.98m ha with the total wheat area estimation at 26.93m ha
• Says spring wheat area reduced year-on-year, with spring wheat output expected to fall after last season’s record levels, driven by strong results in central Russia and Siberia
• Crop conditions were named favorable in most wheat-producing regions with sufficient rainfall providing good soil moisture level in the southern region, country’s largest winter wheat production area
  • Crop conditions are rated 3.44 out of 5, among the highest scores since Argus crop tours began in 2017, although localized concerns persist in parts of Rostov, the southern Volga and some central regions
  • “Weather conditions, rather than fertilizer price volatility, are expected to be the key determinant of final yields in 2026-27, although reduced fertilizer application in some regions could weigh on protein levels”
• Despite the slight decrease in wheat production 2026-27 from 90.4m tons in 2025-26, total Russian wheat supply is expected to increase compared with last year
  • “High beginning stocks, although difficult to mobilize for export, would lift the country’s total wheat availability to 105m tons, the third highest on record in the country”
• NOTE: The estimates do not include Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia

 

Indonesia sets biofuel mandate timeline, all biodiesel users to switch to B50 by 2028

Indonesia’s energy ministry has issued a ministerial decree setting the timeline for the implementation of its biofuel blending mandate, an official said on Wednesday, as it tries meet its energy transition and self-sufficiency targets.

It said that by 2028, all biodiesel users will shift to the B50 standard, which includes 50% palm oil-based fuel.

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, originally planned to implement a mandatory blend of “at least” 40% palm-based biodiesel blended with 60% conventional diesel in 2026, according to the decree, which was signed on March 3.

Indonesia has since said it will launch a programme toraise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel from 40% to 50%, a standard known as B50, starting from July 1.

The early implementation of B50 was part of a wider government plan to mitigate risks arising from the Iran war.

Indonesia plans to keep the palm oil blending rate at 50% for subsidised diesel in 2027, but unsubsidised diesel could stay at 40%, depending on the capacity available. B50 will be the standard for all users by 2028, the decree said.

“Through more comprehensive regulations and clear phasing, we want to ensure that biofuel utilisation can be implemented optimally, while still considering the readiness of raw materials, infrastructure, and industrial support,” said director general of renewable energy Eniya Listiani Dewi in a statement on Wednesday.

The energy ministry will issue a new ministerial decree to allocate the biodiesel required to meet the B50 goal in the second half of this year, Eniya said. It had previously allocated 15.65 million kilolitres for 2026 to meet the B40 standard.

Indonesia also plans to mix non-subsidised gasoline with at least 5% ethanol in Java, the country’s most populated island, over the 2026-2027 period, and raise the proportion to 10% by 2028.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia, is also planning to roll out a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate starting from 2027.

From next year, flights operating in Jakarta’s Soekarno Hatta International Airport and Bali’s I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport, two of Indonesia’s busiest airports, will use fuel consisting of 1% SAF.

 

Australia Canola Crop Seen Falling 19% Y/y on Iran War: USDA

Australia’s upcoming 2026-27 canola crop is forecast to shrink to 6.2m metric tons, down 19% from the prior season, due to disruptions to diesel and fertilizer supplies caused by the war in Iran, the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

• Agency is expecting Australian exports of the major oilseed to fall by 16% to 4.7m tons, as the Iran war sends the price of nitrogen fertilizers substantially higher, cutting into crop yields
• “Winter cropping producers are expected to adjust their planting programs to reduce reliance on nitrogen-intensive crops,” the agency said

 

India’s sugar, edible oil demand drops as commercial gas shortages hit restaurants

Consumption of sugar and edible oils in India, the world’s largest market, is declining as a shortage of commercial gas cylinders has forced restaurants to scale back operations during the summer holiday season.

Lower consumption could curb India’s imports of edible oils, including palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, and soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Roadside eateries and restaurants are facing gas cylinder shortages, which is reducing their edible oil consumption, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), noting that India’s edible oil imports fell nearly 9% in March from the previous month to 1.2 million tons.

These restaurants serve popular dishes such as samosas and chole bhature, which are typically deep-fried.

Manoj Yadav, who runs a roadside eatery serving chole bhature, said he was unable to operate last week after running out of cooking gas, resuming business this week after securing a single cylinder that is unlikely to last more than ten days.

“Gas cylinder deliveries haven’t happened even three weeks after booking. I’m not sure if I’ll get a new cylinder or when it will be delivered,” Yadav said.

India, the world’s second-largest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) importer, is ​battling its worst ​gas crisis ⁠in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield households from ​shortages.

The country consumed 33.15 ​million ⁠metric tons of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About ⁠90% ​of those imports came from ​the Middle East.

A senior official with the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF) told Reuters that the gas shortage has also hit sugar demand, which typically rises during the summer months.

“Summer holidays have begun and the wedding season is picking up,” the official said, adding that many roadside tea stalls and sweet shops have scaled back operations or shut temporarily.

The official requested anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

 

Russia fails to privatise grain trader Rodnie Polya, sources say

Russia has failed to privatise Rodnie Polya, formerly the country’s largest grain trader, after receiving no bids at a state auction, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

Bids for the purchase of 100% of Rodnie Polya, which was nationalised in 2025, were accepted until March 31, with a starting price of 11.7 billion roubles ($149.20 million). The results were due to be announced on April 9.

Russian Federal Agency for State Property Management (Rosimushchestvo) has not commented on the auction outcome. The auction’s status on the official information website is listed as “winner is being determined”.

Rodnie Polya accounted for 14% of Russia’s total grain exports in the 2023/24 season.

The company, formerly owned by businessman Petr Khodykin, was transferred to state ownership in early 2025 following a lawsuit by the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office, which cited Khodykin’s foreign citizenship as a primary reason for the seizure.

The company owned, among other assets, a major grain‑loading terminal in Rostov region that is classified as a strategic asset and, under Russian law, cannot be controlled by foreign entities.

Interfax previously reported that Russia’s biggest potash and ammonium nitrate producer Uralchem was among those potentially interested in buying Rodnie Polya.

Sources in the agricultural sector also told Reuters that grain holding company Demetra and agriculture group GAP Resource could take part in the auction.

Andrey Kostin, head of state-owned bank VTB VTBR.MM, also did not rule out making a bid.

Uralchem, VTB, Demetra and GAP Resource have not commented.

 

Brazil authorized to sell meat products, other goods to Ethiopia, says official

Brazil has been authorized to sell 17 products to Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, which include key export goods such as beef, poultry and pork, an official from the Latin American country’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

Ethiopia is an important market in the region, as it has a large population of about 130 million people, according to U.N. data.

It marks the first market openings for Brazilian goods under the new Agriculture Minister Andre de Paula, who took office last week.

Brazil surpassed 500 new markets last year for its agricultural goods since the beginning of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s current term in 2023.

The authorizations were reported by local newspaper Valor Economico earlier in the day, citing Luis Rua, the ministry’s trade and international relations secretary.

Rua confirmed the news to Reuters following a request for comment.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in March: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 127 points in March from 116 in Feb., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 6 points from Feb.
• Future expectations up by 14 points
• “March results suggest that while producers report improved sentiment, concerns about input costs increased,” according to Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture

 

 

 

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