Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.06 closing near session lows. Spreads were steady to firmer. May-26 violated support at LW’s low with next support at the 100 day MA at $4.48 ¼. Support for Dec-26 is at $4.82 ¾. The USDA announced a flash sale of 145k mt (5.7 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer. The MM long position is corn at nearly 285k contracts is a 13 month high. The end of March USDA reports has been supportive for corn in recent years closing higher the past 5, and 65% of the years since 2000. No surprise with EPA keeping US ethanol blend mandate at 15 bil. gallons. Dry conditions in the south should have enabled sizable corn plantings this week in TX, LA, MS and AR. The BAGE kept their Argentina production forecast unchanged at 57 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 52 mmt. They report harvest has reached 15%. AgRural lowered their Brazilian production forecast .5 mmt to 135.7 mmt, still above the USDA at 132 mmt. Export inspections at 70 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 63 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 1.826 bil. are up 36% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 14.5 mil., Japan – 13 mil. while S. Korea took 11 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans within a penny of unchanged, meal within a buck of unchanged while oil was up another $.01+ per lbs. Both May-26 and Nov-26 beans held within Friday’s range. May-26 meal rejected trade below its 100 day MA. May-26 oil surged to a fresh 3 week high however held below its contracts high at 69.91. Spot board crush margins jumped another dime to $2.86 bu., the highest since Oct-22, while bean oil PV surged to a new all-time high at 52.1%. Energy prices were mostly higher despite optimism from Pres. Trump the war with Iran may be entering its finally stages. This AM the Pres. stated “great progress has been made with A New, And More Reasonable Regime to end of Military Operations in Iran,” however went on threaten to blow up and completely obliterate Iran’s power plants if a deal is not reached shortly to end the conflict and open the Straits of Hormuz. The Biomass-based diesel volume figure at 9.07 bil. Gallons in 2026 and 9.2 bil. in 2027 (including 70% SRE reallocation) was above expectations. This will likely translate to 5.4-5.6 bil. gallons of green diesel annually. Bean oil usage will need to reach 1.44 bil. Lbs. per month to reach the USDA projected use in 26/27 vs. an all-time high of 1.273 bil. Lbs. in July-23. Bean oil will have to compete with alternative feed stocks. BO usage as a feedstock peaked at over 50% a few years ago, having fallen to around 30% recently, and it’s not until 2028 when the more favorable RIN credit policies kick-in. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s bought just over 20k contracts across the soybean complex pushing their net long position out to a record high at 428,457 contracts. AgRural raised their Brazilian forecast .4 mmt to 178.4 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 180 mmt. Export inspections at 22 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD inspections at 1.094 bil. are down 27% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China took 10 mil. while Indonesia took 7 mil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.06 lower in KC to $.03 higher in CGO and MIAX. Spreads were mixed. Waves of precipitation are forecast to cross the central Midwest this week with 1.5-3+” expected. Good rains for the SE plains while only lite, scattered amounts for W. TX, OK and KS. Across the 3 classes of wheat MM’s were net buyers of just over 10k contracts, extending their combined long position to 23,429 contracts, the largest since July-22. IKAR reports the Ave. export price for Russian wheat ended last week at $238/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week. They expect March exports will come in closer to the high end of their range at 4.6 mmt. Export inspections at 13 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations and below the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 746 mil. bu. are up 17% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast up 9%.
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