Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil was lower early Wednesday (but inside Tuesday’s range) on perhaps some cautious ideas that the US and Iran are open to discussions. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Pakistan has delivered a proposal from the United States to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkey could be venues for discussions to de-escalate the war, which is at least a sign that Iran is willing to talk. Officially, Iran’s military rejected President Trump’s assertion the US was in negotiations to end the war. On the other hand, reports of US troop movements to the Middle East have fueled speculation that the US is planning some sort of landing, either at Kharg Island or somewhere along the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps the market on edge and waiting for the next move. Reuters reported that API crude oil stocks were +2.35 million barrels for the week ending March 20 versus an average expectation from the Reuters poll of +500,000
PRODUCTS
Key reversals in May RBOB and May ULSD this week suggest tops are in, but the volume did not appear large enough to give those indicators much veracity. Still, the action does suggest some exhaustion. May RBOB and May ULSD were both lower overnight, and unlike crude oil, they pushed made new lows for the week.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas was lower early Wednesday and was approaching the February 26 low at 2.807. Softness in the energy market likely contributed to the weakness overnight, but the US market is under the influence of a mild weather pattern and low domestic demand. For this week’s EIA storage report, the early Reuters poll has expectations calling for net withdrawal of 14 to 48 billion cubic feet for the week ending March 20. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show mostly above normal temperatures across the nation, with some normal temps along the west coast and near the Canadian border, which demand should stay light as we move toward the end of the heating season.
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