Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday overnight, inside Monday’s wide range after a reversal and steep selloff on the Trump announcement that he had postponed attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, mentioning productive talks with the Iran. Representatives of the Iranian government denied there were such talks, leaving the market to speculate whether there had been talks or if so, who on the Iranian side was speaking on the behalf of the government. Overnight, a representative of the Israeli military said that Iran launched missiles at their nation. There are reports that some Indian and Chinese ships are moving through the Strait, which while not indicating a solution, does represent a way for supply tightness to ease slightly. On the other hand, speakers at a petroleum industry conference in Houston said the market is underestimating severity of the cutoff ins supply from the Persian Gulf.
PRODUCTS
Open interest dropped off sharply on the rally for both RBOB and ULSD, indicating the move was driven by short covering and not new buying and does not suggest a sustainable long term trend. Divergence with momentum indicator also indicates a loss of upward momentum.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas was higher early Tuesday but near the low end of Monday’s selloff. Unlike the London futures, which have bid moves higher due to the interruption of supply from the Persian Gulf, the US market is under pressure from ample domestic supply. The US is the largest exporter of LNG in the world, but exports are already near capacity with given the current number of export facilities. Adding to the pressure on the market is a warmer than normal trend expected over the lower 48 states.
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