Global Ag News For March 16.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Iran war deprives US farmers of affordable fertilizer as spring planting looms

• Fertilizer shortage due to Iran war alarming US and Canadian farmers
• Fertilizer dealers could be 25-35% short of usual spring fertilizer supplies
• Prices have surged since Iran war began

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertilizer.

Prices for any available supplies have spiked more than a third since the war in Iran paralyzed global trade.

The U.S., which in some years imports half of its urea fertilizer, is about 25% short of the usual supplies that farmers buy for spring planting, according to The Fertilizer Institute, which represents the U.S. fertilizer supply chain.

Supplies could grow still scarcer if fertilizer destined for the U.S. gets rerouted to other places willing to pay more for it, an analyst said.

Josh Linville, a fertilizer market analyst at StoneX, said the price offered in New Orleans, the port area where most offshore U.S. imports enter and prices are set, is as much as $119 less per metric ton than global prices.

“Not only am I worried about incoming vessels being turned around to other, better-paying destinations, there’s an argument to be made, if somebody was willing to go and buy up (supply on) barges, to load them onto a vessel and export it,” Linville said.

Late Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department said it was taking immediate steps to allow for more imports of Venezuelan fertilizer “to support our great American farmers.”

Since removing Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid in January, the Trump administration has been supporting U.S.-focused Venezuelan oil exports. Friday’s announcement also includes further measures that Treasury says will allow Venezuela’s energy sector to recover from years of decline.

Venezuela has been a significant but not dominant producer of nitrogen fertilizers like urea. However, recent years have seen a massive decline in production, similar to its stumbling crude oil industry. Increasing fertilizer production in Venezuela’s stressed economy and political situation will be a challenge requiring billions of dollars, analysts told Reuters. It will not be a quick fix.

Farmers who do significant springtime fertilizer application and have not already purchased their supplies are finding retail centers empty, or stocked with supplies sold at such a premium that it’s unaffordable.

“It sends shivers down your spine,” said Saskatchewan, Canada farmer David Altrogge, whose broker told him that a local fertilizer dealer had stopped offering prices for fertilizer due to the shortage.

He bought his urea in December, but if he bought it today it would cost C$44,000 ($32,070) more. Some farmers in his area now face that price hike or may not even be able to buy any, he said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 31; Soymeal down $7.50; Soyoil down 0.98.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 3 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 10; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.38.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 48 3/4 in HRW, up 2/7 in HRS; Corn is up 15 3/4; Soybeans up 23 1/2; Soymeal down $5.30; Soyoil up 4.61.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 19.6% in SRW, up 21.7% in HRW, up 11.5% in HRS; Corn is up 5.3%; Soybeans up 15.9%; Soymeal up 7.0%; Soyoil up 38.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal down 49; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil up 148; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 91.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 91 ringgit (+1.99%) at 466

 

There were changes in registrations (-6 Corn, 2 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 683 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 241 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 13 were: SRW Wheat up 1,234 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,167, Corn up 19,008, Soybeans down 781, Soymeal up 293, Soyoil down 3,513.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold outbreak in the Eastern U.S. should have little effect on winter wheat, since temperatures over the Central Plains will drop only briefly for 1-2 days
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rain expected over Espirito Santo’s main coffee region (>100 mm/7 days) will benefit long-term crop prospects, but raise short-term flood risks
• EUROPE: The latest forecasts uphold cold risks for Western E.U. at the end of March, which could affect early developing wheat and spring crop plantings
• BLACK SEA: Warm and dry conditions across Ukraine and SW Russia through the next 2 weeks will exacerbate soil moisture deficits
• TELECONNECTIONS: A positive Arctic Oscillation phase (+AO) will weaken in the next week, increasing the likelihood of cold conditions along the Northern Hemisphere latitudes

 

Northern Plains: A band of heavy snow fell across the region this weekend, especially in Montana. Cold air quickly moved in over the weekend, but it will quickly move out as well, as heat builds over the region throughout the week, melting the snow. A burst of showers may move through with the warmer air on Tuesday, but drier conditions are likely for most of the next week, with potential for storms returning next week.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Extremely strong winds developed across the region again over the weekend as a major winter storm system moved through. However, there was not a lot of precipitation, which favored areas to the north and east. The winds have brought in some colder air, but that will quickly be leaving early this week, being replaced by extreme warmth that is likely to set records later this week. The frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions this week as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought may continue to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, but being unfavorable for planting summer crops as well.

 

Midwest: A massive winter storm system moved into the region over the weekend with extremely heavy snow across the north, and severe thunderstorms across the south. Winds have been strong with the system as well. The last punch to the storm moves through on Monday, where snow will continue around the Great Lakes, followed by lake-effect snow into Tuesday. A blast of arctic air is also moving through the region, but will not last long. Warmer air will spread through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a mix of rain and snow ushering in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction.

 

Delta: A strong cold front is moving through the region on Sunday with strong winds and a line of severe weather. Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further, and if dry conditions continue next week as well, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

 

Brazil: Scattered showers continued across central Brazil over the weekend and stay in the region throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front will come up from Argentina on Tuesday and may have a tendency to stall and produce scattered showers for the rest of the week, though coverage could wane by the weekend. More rain will be needed there.

 

Argentina: Some showers fell over western areas this weekend, but missed the very dry southeast. However, a pair of fronts are forecast to bring through widespread rain Monday and Tuesday, which may be heavy for those in the southeast and stabilize crop conditions. There is not a lot of time left for rainfall to produce positive impacts, however, with early-crop harvest continuing to expand and late-crop harvest approaching at the end of the month.

 

The player sheet for 3/13 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 7,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender, European traders said.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO provisionally bought about 175,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender, European traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 87,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, in an international tender on Friday, European traders said.
• CORN TENDER: Turkey gets offers in 280,000 ton corn purchase tender, traders say. The lowest offer in the first round of the tender from Turkey’s state grain board TMO to buy around 280,000 metric ton of animal feed corn on Monday was believed to be $252.45 a metric ton cost and freight included (c&f), traders said in initial assessments.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• SOYBEAN TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 45,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 12.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was March 13.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is March 17.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 18.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,020 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers is March 19.

 

 

TODAY

Trump Floats Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz

Donald Trump threatened to delay his summit with Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz, as the US-Israel war stifles oil supplies and unsettles ties between the world’s biggest economies.

Trump stressed China’s dependence on oil from the Middle East in an interview with the Financial Times, as he reiterated a demand for Beijing to help unblock the key waterway. One day earlier, the Republican leader appealed to China to join a team effort to send ships to the strait through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.

“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said Sunday in the FT interview. His trip to Beijing slated for the end of this month would be too late, Trump added, underscoring the growing urgency around efforts to counter Iran’s chokehold on the strait.

While China hasn’t made any direct response to the request, the state-run Global Times dismissed the idea as Trump’s attempt to spread the risk “of a war that Washington started and can’t finish.” The commentary published by the nationalist tabloid on Sunday night explained why Beijing wouldn’t sign up to the proposal.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian sidestepped the issue of sending ships to the strait on Monday at a regular briefing in Beijing, while reiterating both sides were in communication about the summit. “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting.

Trump’s comments come as Chinese and US trade chiefs are convening in Paris to tee-up the summit, with talks set to resume on Monday. Trump administration officials have also said they are engaging with allies including the UK, South Korea and Japan to secure the strait, although so far most countries have expressed caution about deploying resources to an active war zone.

While it’s unsurprising Trump wants Beijing’s help, China has little incentive to entangle itself in a spiraling conflict, said Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai.

“That’s his war, not our war,” said Wu, who has previously advised China’s Foreign Ministry. “Why should we send ships there — for what purpose? To join the US and its allies to fight Iran? I don’t think it is a wise thing for China to do under the current circumstances.”

Chinese officials have so far condemned Trump’s war on Iran — a diplomatic friend of Beijing — and would be unlikely to send ships, in part because some carriers bound for China still appear to be getting through. While China is the biggest user of oil passing through the strait, it also has vast stockpiles to help manage any interruptions.

Trump has a history of making threats to call off deals in the final stages of negotiating, a move he’s used to gain leverage. The US leader made a similar threat weeks before a planned meeting with Xi in October, accompanied by steep tariff-hike proposals. That meeting ultimately went ahead and extended a trade war truce.

A delay to the summit could suit Beijing. China had previously proposed Trump arriving at the end of April to allow more time for preparations, according to a person familiar with the matter. Such a postponement would allow for more discussion on security and diplomatic issues including self-ruled Taiwan.

 

US, China seek to wrap Paris talks on managed trade, agriculture deals for Xi-Trump summit

• Paris talks seek to tee up proposals for Trump, Xi to weigh in Beijing
• China open to more buying of U.S. agriculture goods, sources say
• U.S., China said to explore new ways to manage trade, investments
• Trump tells FT he may delay Xi meet over Hormuz strait closure

Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials were due to conclude talks in Paris on Monday, with potential areas of agreement in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade that could be taken up by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, sources familiar with the discussions said.

The sources told Reuters that the “remarkably stable” talks led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng would set in motion possible “deliverables” for Trump’s expected trip to China at the end of March to meet with Xi.

But the leaders would have the final say, they added.

Trump, however, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Sunday that he could also delay his summit with Xi later this month as he presses Beijing to help unblock the crucial Strait of Hormuz closed by Iran.

“We may delay,” he said of the trip.

The U.S. and Chinese delegations met for more than six hours on Sunday at the Paris headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club of mostly wealthy democracies that does not count China as a member.

In the talks, the Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops, one of the sources said.

China was still committed to buying 25 million metric tons of American soybeans for each of the next three years under the Trump-Xi October 2025 trade truce, the source added.

Spokespersons for the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office declined to characterize the talks, while Chinese officials left on Sunday without speaking to reporters.

In a statement on Monday, China’s commerce ministry rebuked the United States over a trade investigation into forced labour, urging Washington to “correct its wrongdoings”, and citing representations made to the United States

“Meaningful” progress in Sino‑U.S. economic cooperation could restore confidence to an increasingly fragile global economy, the official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary on Sunday.

The Paris talks follow several meetings to ease tension last year between Bessent, He, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang.

 

NOPA February US soybean crush estimated at 202.725 million bushels

U.S. processors likely crushed more soybeans last month than in any previous February on record, encouraged by strong crush margins and ample supplies of cheap beans, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Monday.

NOPA members, who represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, were estimated to have crushed 202.725 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts surveyed by Reuters.

The estimate, if realized, suggests last month’s crush would be down 8.5% from 221.564 million bushels in January, which was three days longer, but up 14.0% from the 177.870 million bushels crushed in February 2025.

The trade estimate indicates February’s average daily crushing rate rose to 7.240 million bushels a day, up from a daily 7.147-million-bushel pace in January, when winter weather disrupted operations at some facilities, and the third-strongest daily pace for any month on record.

U.S. crush capacity has swelled amid rising demand from biofuels makers for feedstocks like soyoil.

Crush estimates for February ranged from 199.400 million to 205.453 million bushels, with a median of 202.750 million bushels.

The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of February 28 were forecast to rise to 1.928 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts.

The total, if realized, would be up 1.5% from stocks totaling 1.900 billion pounds at the end of January and the heftiest supply since April 2023.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.701 billion to 2.100 billion pounds, with a median of 1.963 billion pounds.

 

Conab cuts Brazil’s soy output forecast slightly, still sees record crop

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean output is expected to reach a record 177.85 million metric tons, national crop agency Conab said on Friday, slightly trimming its February forecast of 177.98 million tons.

• Soy farmers in the world’s largest producer and exporter faced a challenging February due to excessive rainfall in center-western and southeastern Brazil, Conab said.
• The agency also pointed to irregular weather in Rio Grande do Sul state.
• “Even with the challenges encountered, weather conditions overall favored the crop development, and the expectation is that production will reach a new record,” it added in a report.
• Soybean exports this year estimated at 114.39 million tons, up from 112.2 million tons last month.
• The “elevated crop volume and expectations of robust exports in 2026” triggered the upward revision, Conab said.

ADDITIONAL FORECASTS

• Brazil’s total corn production was pegged at 138.27 million tons, down from 138.45 million tons in the previous forecast.
• Second-corn crop estimated at 108.43 million tons, versus 109.26 million tons in the February projection.
• Cotton output forecast unchanged at 3.8 million tons.

 

Brazil’s soy harvest passes 57% of area, behind last year’s pace, Patria AgroNegocios says

Farmers in Brazil harvested 57.43% of the expected 2025/26 soybean area, below the 66.03% seen at this time last year, but in line with the five-year average of 57.88%, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

• Yields continue to fluctuate, Patria said, adding the harvest is still considered positive, despite losses caused by excessive rainfall in the Center-West region.
• Mato Grosso state continues to lead the country on pace, having harvested 96.4% of its estimated area.
• Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soy.

 

Tighter checks disrupt Brazilian soybean exports to China

• Stricter checks slow Brazilian soybean exports to China
• Higher freight rates add pressure on soybean trade
• Disruptions could tighten China’s soybean supplies
• US soybeans may gain if Brazilian flows slow

Tighter phytosanitary checks are hitting Brazilian soybean shipments to China, threatening to squeeze supplies to the world’s top importer after authorities in the South American country stepped up inspections at Beijing’s request.

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry increased inspections on soybean shipments to China following Beijing’s repeated findings of pesticide- and fungicide-coated beans, four trade sources said.

“Chinese customs in various regions have observed increased issues in Brazilian soybeans, including the presence of live insects, beans coated with seed treatment agents such as pesticides or fungicides, and heat damage,” said an Asian trader at an international company which sells beans to China.

Importers now must repeatedly verify with Brazilian suppliers that shipments are free of phytosanitary problems before departure, on risk of being blocked once they reach China, a second Asian trader said.

Tighter quality checks during Brazil’s peak export season could hit supplies in China, though the market is well-stocked following last year’s record purchases.

“If inspections are tightened and clearance times lengthen on both ends, it could slow the pace of arrivals in March-April,” said Cheang Kang Wei, vice president at StoneX in Singapore.

That could provide a window of opportunity for U.S. suppliers to sell more to China, which resumed purchases from the United States in late October following a trade deal. China had not bought any U.S. soybeans from the autumn harvest until late October.

“There is a window, in theory, if Brazilian flows are disrupted, but it would likely be timing-related rather than a lasting shift, unless trade diplomacy improves,” Cheang said.

Cepea/Esalq, the agriculture research centre at the University of Sao Paulo, said the pace of soybean deals in Brazilian ports has slowed due to the new phytosanitary protocols. Shipments had to be redirected to the domestic market, it added.

Trading firm Cargill’s Latin America head told Reuters on Wednesday it had paused soybean exports from Brazil to China.

Asked to comment on the Cargill executive’s remarks, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said on Friday that it complies with rules and protocols set by the importing countries.

China’s General Administration of Customs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

 

Argentina grain exports seen at $34.5 bln in 2026, exchange says

Argentina’s exports of grains and byproducts are projected to reach $34.53 billion in 2026, slightly below the $34.6 billion recorded last year, the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said in a report on Friday.

While export revenue is expected to remain stable, the exchange noted that shipment volumes could hit an unprecedented 113 million tons. This would surpass the previous record set during the 2018/19 season by nearly 10 million tons.

The South American country is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, the third largest exporter of corn, and a global supplier of wheat.

The BCR projects record 2025/26 corn production at 62 million tons, with the soybean crop estimated at 48 million tons.

Argentine farmers have already begun the corn harvest, while the soy harvest is slated to begin in April.

The 2025/26 wheat cycle has concluded with a historic output of 29.5 million tons, the exchange added.

 

Brazil braces for smallest wheat crop in five years as farmers slash planting

Brazilian farmers are set to reap their smallest wheat harvest in five years, analysts predict, marking a multi-season retreat from planting the crop as weak margins and competition from other winter crops erode its appeal.

National crop agency Conab on Friday pegged this season’s wheat output at 6.9 million metric tons, down 12.3% from the previous cycle and the smallest since 2021.

That was in line with an estimate earlier in the week by agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado, which projected the 2026/27 harvest at 6.86 million tons.

Planting in Brazil’s main wheat-producing states is set to kick off in April, though wheat sowings are expected to shrink, both estimates showed. Harvesting usually begins in September in Brazil, the second-largest South American wheat producer.

Safras said planted area in 2026/2027 could be down as much as 40% from four years ago, or a 15.5% retreat from the previous season to 1.99 million hectares (4.9 million acres).

Conab more conservatively estimated planting area down 5.2% this year to 2.32 million hectares.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices continue to rise as competition among buyers intensifies

Corn availability in the spot market decreased this week, increasing competition among purchasers for the product. As a result, quotations rose in some areas surveyed by Cepea. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for averaged BRL 70.60 per 60-kg bag in March (up to March 12), the highest since May 2025 (in real terms – IGP-DI Feb/26).

It is worth noting that the supply is restricted even with the progress of the summer crop and the satisfactory levels of ending stocks. Conab released a report today indicating that initial stocks for the 2025/26 crop (which has started in February) are at 12.68 million tons, higher than the 1.88 million tons verified in 2024/25.

Farmers have been prioritizing soybean deliveries and the sowing of the second corn crop. As some sellers hold back from closing deals, buyers are willing to replenish inventories. Competition for freight, already fierce, may intensify amid rising fuel prices linked to conflicts in the Middle East.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Conflict pushes up prices in the US; increases are passed on to Brazil

Cepea, 13 – International soybean prices surpassed USD 12.00 per bushel this week, a level not seen since May 2024. The gains are linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with new attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying concerns about oil flows in the region and supporting energy prices.

This trend strengthened incentives to blend biodiesel with diesel, as soybean oil is the main feedstock used in biofuel production. As a result, soybean oil futures rose sharply.

International price rises pushed up export parity and supported prices in Brazil. Still, the pace of trading at ports was limited by new phytosanitary protocols.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 0.9% from March 5-12, to close at BRL 122.92 per 60-kg bag on March 12. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) increased 1% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 130.87 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the 23 regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

Rains are moderating in the outlook for most South America crop regions, while Southern Brazil will remain dry

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 5 days, low after that due to widespread pattern uncertainty

Model Change (from previous update): Drier in Paraguay, Brazil, and the Argentina Pampas

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

Argentina/Paraguay

• Warm temperatures (2-4 °C above normal) will dominate across Argentina/Paraguay through the next 5 days, but a strong cold front will arrive thereafter in a volatile pattern.
• 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-100 mm (~1-4 in) wetter than normal in Argentina, while Paraguay will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal.
• Weather is likely to trend hotter/drier toward the end of March.
• Upcoming Argentina rains will aid the late stages of soybean development, while Paraguay dryness will be unfavorable for corn.

Brazil

• Heat risks (temperatures 3-6 °C above normal) will build over the South region throughout the next 15 days, with mild conditions to the north.
• 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-75 mm (~1-3 in) wetter than normal along and north of a line from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, while areas to the south will be comparably drier than normal.
• Risks for hot/dry weather will continue over the South region through the end of the month, but near to above normal rainfall should persist across the rest of the country.
• Central-West Brazil rains will be favorable for 2nd crop corn early development without hampering any remaining plantings, and drier conditions to the south should support corn/soybean harvest progress.

Weather discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation is likely to develop into a Phase 8 event in late March. This will support the potential for hot/dry conditions from Argentina into South Brazil by that time, with cool/wet weather to the north.

 

 

 

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