Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.08-$.09 higher while spreads were mixed. Despite the rally May-26 remains well below this week’s high of $4.76. Same for Dec-26 which closed $.09 ¼ higher at $4.89. No changes to US ending stocks holding at a 7 year high at 2.127 bil. bu. Global stocks/use among major exporting countries rose to 10.6%, a 6 year high. Ethanol production rebounded to 331 mil. gallons last week, up from 322 mil. the previous week and up 6% from YA. There was 111 mil. bu. used in the production process, or 15.9 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.4 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.60 bil. Ethanol stocks fell to 25.6 mil. barrels, well below the 27.6 mb from YA. Implied gasoline usage last week jumped 11.4% to 9.241 tbd, however up less than 1% YOY. While US/Argentina jostle back and forth with who’s the worlds cheapest, with US FOB prices well below Brazil, US export demand likely to remain strong thru Q2 awaiting their 2nd crop harvest. Tomorrow export sales are expected to range between 35-85 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.10-$.13, meal was steady to $1 higher while oil finished up just over $.01 ½ per lb. Bean and meal spreads firmed while oil spreads were mixed. May-26 beans were up $.12 closing about midrange and below this week’s high of $12.33 ¾. May-26 meal rejected early trade below its 100 day MA at $312.10. Although May-26 oil was up $.01 ½ lb. it closed in the lower half of the day’s range. Speculative buyers are anticipating supportive RVO and SRE announcements from the Trump Administration this month while RIN values also rally. Energy prices continue to recover from yesterday’s midday plunge which was fueled by false reports that the US Navy escorted a tanker thru the Straits of Hormuz. Limiting the upside today were reports the US military sunk several Iranian ships, including minelayers near the Straits of Hormuz, while the IEA revealed a plan for member countries to release up to 400 mil. barrels of oil from strategic reserves, more than double the 182 mil. gallons released in 2022 shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spot board crush margins rebounded another $.06 ½ to $2.18 ½ with bean oil PV jumping to 51.6% just below their all-time highs. US Treasury Sec. Bessent and USTR Greer are expected to meet with Chinese trade officials in Paris this weekend ahead of Pres. Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing in late March. Bulls remain hopeful for fresh Chinese purchases despite US Gulf FOB offers running $1.00-$1.30 over Brazilian offers into the summer months. US ending stocks at 350 mil. bu. is arguably bearish from these price levels, however with the potential for additional Chinese buying and stocks closer to 300 mil. bu. is drawing the speculative interest. Surging input prices is also limiting farmer selling despite the price surge. Stocks/use among major global exporters ticked up to 19.5%, consistent with the past 6 MY’s. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range between 10-30 mil. bu. of beans, 150-350k tons of meal and 0 to 15k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.03 to $.05 higher. CGO May-26 held within yesterday’s range. CGO and KC spreads were mixed. KC May-26 spread over CGO grew to over $.20 intraday having rallied over $.30 since late Feb-26 as the SW plains continue to miss out on rainfall. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 931 mil. bu. while global stocks drifted down to 277 mmt. Safras & Mercado forecast Brazilian acres in 2026 will fall 15.5% from YA to 1.985 mil. HA. Production is expected to drop 14.5% to 6.85 mmt, below the USDA forecast of 8 mmt. Stocks/use among global exporters held steady at 17.7%, the highest in 7 years. A South Korean flour mill reportedly bought 32k mt of US milling wheat. US FOB offers remain positioned well above Black Sea and Argentine offers. Export sales are expected to range from 8-16 mil. bu.
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