Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
London Wheat Report
Another choppy day for the world of agricultural commodities today, with most starting the day heavily down following crude’s overnight decline. London wheat followed the trend, trading lower across all contracts, firmly erasing Monday’s bullish start to the week. Volumes were once again elevated as market participants capitalised on the ongoing volatility.
Chart: LSEG T X6
News from the European Commission today showed that EU soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season in July had reached 16.50 mmt by March 8, compared to 15.77 mmt the previous week and up 9% from a year earlier. A further breakdown of this season’s volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 5.35 mmt exported so far, followed by France with 4.55 mmt and Poland with 1.84 mmt. As has been previously reported, however, the Commission stated that export figures for France from the start of calendar year 2024 were not complete. Morocco remained the biggest destination for EU soft wheat, followed by Egypt.
In this afternoon’s USDA WASDE, the Department of Agriculture kept its forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks unchanged from last month, as the Iran war has fuelled uncertainty over what farmers will plant this spring. The USDA estimated 2025-26 ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels; this comes as analysts expected 2.136 billion bushels as per an earlier poll hosted by Reuters. Across the rest of the report, there were no changes in the US outlook and a slightly bearish take on the global setup, as 2025/26 world-ending stocks were revised higher rather than lower as expected.
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