Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CORN
As expected the USDA punted on making any significant changes to the US balance sheets as ending stocks were left unchanged in corn, soybeans and wheat. There was some tweaking to the soybean balance sheet along with changes to soybean product usage estimates. Corn prices finished $.01-$.02 ½ lower in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads were mixed. May-26 rejected trade below its 100 day MA finishing near the high of the day’s range. Tomorrow EIA report is expected to show ethanol production range between 319-331 mil. gallons vs. 322 mil. the previous week.
- Ending stocks left unchanged at 2.127 bil. bu. with no changes to demand
- Global inventories rose nearly 3 mmt to 292.8 mmt, vs. expectations for no change
- Production rose 1.7 mmt in Ukraine, 1 mmt in Brazil while down 1 mmt in Argentina
- The Ave. US Farm price for 2026/27 at $4.20 appears historically reasonable with stocks/use at 11.4%.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans up $.05-$.06, meal was steady to $1 higher while oil off 30-50 points in choppy 2 sided trade. Spreads were mixed as well. May-26 beans managed to hold a close above $12 despite the sell-off in energies. For now May-26 oil rejected trade below $.65 lb. Spot board crush margins backed up another $.08 ½ to $2.12 bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 51.1%. Markets also bracing for final RVO and SRE rulings from the Trump Admin. after receiving the EPA’s final proposal nearly 2 weeks ago. Back to watching energy prices and monitoring developments in the Middle East. Energy prices plunged to new lows at midday after it was reported the US Navy escorted its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Soybean bulls remain hopeful this weekend’s meeting between US Treasury Sec. Bessent and Chinese trade officials in Paris paves the way for additional purchases of US beans when Trump/Xi meet later this month in Beijing.
- Ending stocks were unchanged at 350 mil. bu. as a 5 mil. bu. increase in crush offset by 5 mil. bu. higher imports
- Bean oil usage for biofuel production cut 800 mil. lbs. to 14 bil. largely offset by 750 mil. lb. increase in other domestic use
- Meal imports up 75k tons with domestic use up 400k tons offsetting higher supplies from added crush
- Global stocks little changed at 125.3 mmt
- Brazilian production unchanged at 180 mmt while Argentina cut .5 mmt to 48 mmt
- Chinese imports unchanged at 112 mmt with crush holding at 108 mmt
- The Ave. US Farm price for 2026/27 at $10.30 appears historically reasonable with stocks/use at 8%.
WHEAT
Prices were $.11-$.12 lower today experiencing follow thru weakness from yesterday’s poor close. Spreads weakened in both CGO and KC. Key support for May-26 CGO is at the Nov-26 high at $5.76 ½. May-26 KC rejected intraday trade below $6.00. Winter wheat crop ratings in KS slipped 2% to 56% G/E. Conditions rose 5% in OK to 24% G/E while holding steady in TX at only 16% G/E. India’s Ag Ministry forecasts they’ll raise 120.2 mmt of wheat in 2026, vs. the USDA forecast of 117.95 mmt.
- Ending stocks left unchanged at 931 mil. bu. with no changes to demand or various classes
- The US Ave. Farm price rose $.05 bu. to $4.95
- Global stocks down .5 mmt to 277 mmt
- Russian and Ukraine exports both cut .5 mmt with EU down 1 mmt
- Argentine exports up 1.5 mmt while Australian production down 1 mmt to 36 mmt
- The Ave. Farm Price for 2026/27 at $5.00 is reasonable with stocks/use projected at 47.2%.
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