Global Ag News For March 9.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia may revive B50 biodiesel mix plan as oil prices soar

Indonesia may revive a plan to launch a mandatory B50 grade of palm oil-based biodiesel in the middle of this year because of surging crude oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung said.

No decision has been made yet by Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, Yuliot added in comments sent to Reuters over the weekend.

In January, authorities scrapped a plan to launch B50 – a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel – this year due to technical and funding concerns, instead sticking with a B40 blend.

In light of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, however, the government is now looking at two scenarios, Yuliot said.

“B50 might be implemented in the second semester or even earlier…But for now the steering committee’s decision for B40 until the end of 2026 still stands,” he said, adding that authorities were monitoring price movements in real time.

The steering committee consists of several ministries which determine biodiesel policy, led by chief economic minister, Airlangga Hartarto.

Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate often affects global palm oil prices as increased domestic use reduces available exports.

Oil prices surged on Monday to above $100 per barrel O/R. Palm oil prices also rallied on expectations that rising crude prices will boost demand for biodiesel feedstocks.

Yuliot did not respond to a request for further comment on Monday. Energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the government may accelerate its biofuel programmes, which include B50 and a plan to require a certain blend of bioethanol with gasoline, according to local media reports.

Asked about potential implementation of B50 this year, Airlangga told Reuters that authorities were monitoring the impact of the conflict on biodiesel policy.

Finance minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia is prepared to raise the allocation for fuel subsidies to absorb the shock from rising global oil prices.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal up $1.90; Soyoil up 1.61.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 47 3/4 in SRW, up 57 1/4 in HRW, up 4/9 in HRS; Corn is up 23; Soybeans up 55 1/4; Soymeal up $6.10; Soyoil up 5.87.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 30 3/4 in SRW, up 50 1/4 in HRW, up 3/8 in HRS; Corn is up 19; Soybeans up 45 1/2; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 6.34.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 24.4% in SRW, up 18.8% in HRW, up 10.0% in HRS; Corn is up 2.9%; Soybeans up 16.8%; Soymeal up 5.8%; Soyoil up 43.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 170 yuan; Soymeal up 113; Soyoil up 312; Palm oil up 438; Corn up 16 — Malaysian Palm is up 203.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 203 ringgit (+4.65%) at 4570.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 449 Corn; 482 Soybeans; 1,236 Soyoil; 229 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 6 were: SRW Wheat up 13,504 contracts, HRW Wheat up 153, Corn up 38,536, Soybeans up 16,951, Soymeal up 1,986, Soyoil down 13,887.

 

Brazil: Scattered showers started to fill back in across the country over the weekend, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. That should continue for most areas this week, though some in the northeast and far south will not see nearly as much as the middle of the country. Soil moisture is still on the low side and there is limited time to stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-8 weeks.

Argentina: Limited showers moved through over the weekend, primarily across the less-productive north, and even then did not produce a whole lot of coverage or amounts. Spotty showers will be possible across the country this week, but with very few areas seeing anything of consequence. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with more widespread precipitation, but the forecast is drier for next week, leading to overall unfavorable conditions for filling corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: Some isolated showers went through over the weekend, which included some measurable snow in the southeast, but that quickly melted with warmer air returning. The weather pattern will be chaotic through next week, with multiple systems moving through. Some heavy precipitation will be possible, but not everywhere. There are some drier areas that need some precipitation before spring planting commences and will get it, but there are likely areas that will not as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas of showers and thunderstorms moved through on Friday and Saturday, bringing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather to the southeast while the northwest saw some heavy snow, which has already melted. Another stronger system will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday again with stronger storms and heavier rain in the southeast. Multiple systems will follow for later this week, weekend, and next week, but will target Nebraska over the rest of the region and even then may not bring much precipitation. Drier areas in the southwest are becoming concerning for winter wheat, particularly in the Texas Panhandle while drought areas in the southeast got some improvement, creating mixed conditions.

Midwest: A front went through on Friday and Saturday, producing widespread precipitation and some severe storms. Heavier rain fell in some of the drought areas, which should improve soil moisture prior to spring planting, though deficits are rather large in some areas. The pattern stays very active with another big system for Tuesday and Wednesday with more widespread rain and thunderstorms that could be severe. Another system with a mix of rain and snow this weekend, and then more of the same in a couple of instances for next week.

Delta: A front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather over the weekend. Areas of heavy rain have eased the drought, but have not eliminated it by any means with large deficits still in place for many areas. The pattern is still favorable for bringing in some scattered showers and potential heavy rain on Monday and again on Wednesday. The focus will then shift northward for the weekend and next week, however, giving another unfavorable break in the rainfall.

 

The player sheet for 3/6 had funds: net buyers of 16,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 20,000 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat and about 50,000 tons of durum in an international tender on Friday, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only, European traders said on Sunday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 10.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 11.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. Of the total, about 33,300 tons should be sourced from the United States, about 22,200 tons from China and the rest from Australia, Vietnam and Thailand. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is March 11.
• SOYBEAN TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 45,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms, European traders said. The soybeans are sought from any worldwide origins with 20,000 tons to be shipped in containers and 25,000 tons in bulk. The deadline for submissions of price offers is March 12.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 13.

 

 

TODAY

Brazil soy harvest reaches 47.4%, Patria AgroNegocios says

Brazilian farmers had harvested 47.4% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of Friday, agribusiness consultancy Patria AgroNegocios said on Saturday, roughly in line with the average 47.8% of the last five years.

By the same point in the previous cycle, farmers had harvested 58.7% of the soybean crop, Patria AgroNegocios said.

In February, consultancy AgRural reported that the pace of collecting soy was the slowest since the 2020/21 cycle, citing delayed planting, longer crop cycles and rainfall during the harvest.

Weaker rains across Brazil allowed for a week of “consistent progress” in harvesting across the country, Patria AgroNegocios said in a statement, referring to the last seven days.

“The pace of harvesting is slower than in the last two seasons, but remains in line with the average of the last five years,” the statement said. “Yields fluctuate considerably, but overall the harvest is considered positive.”

 

APK-Inform sees Ukraine’s 2026 grain harvest down 4% to 58.6 million tons

Ukraine’s 2026 grain harvest may decrease by 4% to 58.6 million metric tons from 61.1 million in 2025, mostly due to a smaller wheat output, analysts at APK-Inform said on Sunday.

The consultancy said this year’s harvest may include 20 million tons of wheat, 31.8 million tons of corn and 5.1 million tons of barley.

In 2025 Ukraine harvested 23.2 million tons of wheat, 30.9 million tons of corn and 5.4 million tons of barley, it noted, adding that Ukraine’s 2026/27 grain exports could increase by 4% to 41.96 million tons from 40.18 million in 2025/26.

The export of wheat may shrink to 14 million tons in 2026/27 from 14.5 million in 2025/26, while the export of corn could rise to 25 million tons from 23.2 million and barley exports may jump to 2.5 million tons from 2.0 million.

The government has not yet issued its forecast for the 2026/27 grain harvest and exports.

 

Analyst APK-Inform cuts Ukraine’s 2026 oilseeds harvest forecast

Analysts at APK-Inform have cut their outlook for Ukraine’s sunflower and rapeseed harvests, the consultancy said over the weekend.

Ukraine is a major global producer of both crops and dominates the world sunflower oil market.

APK-Inform now expects the 2026 sunflower seed harvest at 13.35 million metric tons, down from its previous estimate of 13.69 million tons and compared with a record low 10.8 million tons in 2025.

The consultancy said farmers were likely to favour sunflower in 2026 thanks to high soil moisture after winter and because the crop is attractive amid a possible fertiliser shortage.

Analysts have warned that conflict in the Gulf could push up prices and create shortages of fertilisers widely used by Ukrainian growers.

APK-Inform also lowered its forecast for sunflower oil output in the 2026/27 September–August season to 5.75 million tons from 5.89 million tons. It said exports could reach 5.36 million tons.

Ukraine may export 4.3 million tons of sunflower oil in 2025/26 after the poor seed harvest, it added.

Rapeseed output could total 3.83 million tons, while soybean production may reach 5.79 million tons this year, it said. A month earlier, the consultancy had forecast 3.88 million tons of rapeseed and 5.57 million tons of soybeans.

 

Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses

• Gulf war disrupts fertiliser supplies, shipping routes
• Farmers around world see prices rise just before planting season
• Urea prices jump as global fertiliser supply tightens
• Weeks-long shutdown would prevent supplies reaching farmers for spring

The world’s farmers face soaring fertiliser and fuel prices as the war in the Middle East escalates, leaving some scrambling for supplies as the spring planting season approaches.

The war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, has shut down fertiliser plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key importers around the world just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere prepare to plant seeds.

“It’s a mess because it’s spring,” said Cedric Benoist, who farms wheat, barley and other crops south of Paris, referring to global fertiliser prices that have jumped by dozens of euros per metric ton. “This situation can’t continue.”

Farmers from Srinagar in Kashmir to Saskatchewan in Canada rely on fertilizer and diesel shipped through the strait, the conduit for about one-third of global trade in fertilizer and 20% of the world’s export fuels.

Because of a global grains glut, many farmers were already expecting to lose money on this year’s crop. Now the outlook is especially gloomy for farmers who still need to buy spring fertilizer, like Jeff Harrison of Quinte West in Ontario. “We’re in a real bad situation now,” Harrison said.

Prices in the United States, which imports much of its fertilizer needs despite a large domestic industry, rose at the war’s outbreak. Prices for fertilizer jumped from $516 per metric ton on Friday to up to $683 at the import hub of New Orleans on Thursday. Prices could jump higher if the Persian Gulf closure persists and shipments can’t make it in time for spring planting, analysts told Reuters.

“Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

Seth Meyer, former U.S. Department of Agriculture chief economist and now at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, said farmers might alter crop choices and fertilizer applications due to the price spike.

Farmers need fertilizers for virtually all their crops if they want a good yield, but each crop and the soil they are grown in have different demands.

Farmers could cut back on corn, which requires high rates of nitrogen fertiliser, or else sharply reduce fertiliser application rates, Meyer said.

Shipments from the Middle East are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.

Qatar Energy has had to stop production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities.

At the same time, sulphur output has been cut in other parts of the Middle East.

“We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation,” Linville of StoneX said.

India buys more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the Middle East. While imports could be hit, output within India has already been affected.

Three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output as LNG supplies from Qatar have dropped sharply, said a New Delhi-based senior industry official. As a result, supply is expected to be tight for urea and diammonium phosphate in the short term, the person said.

 

Russian fertiliser makers can’t offset potential Iran-related supply crunch, sources say

• Russia aims for quarter of global fertilizer trade in 2030
• Domestic obligations, Ukrainian attacks limit output increase capacity
• Shares in domestic producers rise modestly
• Sources say domestic demand in focus

Fertiliser producers in Russia, the world’s largest exporter, will not be able to make up for a potential global shortfall linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict as their ability to boost supply is constrained, industry sources told Reuters on Friday.

The war has shut down fertiliser plants in the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about a third of global trade in fertilizers.

Russia accounts for about one-fifth of global fertiliser trade, but limited capacity, domestic export caps and recent Ukrainian attacks on major plants all constrain its ability to ramp up output, the sources said.

DOMESTIC SUPPLY OBLIGATIONS

New export-oriented plants are not expected to come on stream before 2027, according to one source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Higher prices look great on paper, but Russian producers are boxed in by domestic supply obligations, especially ahead of the planting season,” said another industry source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

“And any windfall profits are likely to draw government attention as it looks for ways to boost budget revenues.”

A third source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said companies are currently focused on meeting domestic demand.

“It may be possible to cover, over a short horizon, the demand left unmet without the Middle East, but in the long term it is too large a volume to replace,” the source added.

A Ukrainian drone attack on Dorogobuzh, one of Russia’s largest fertiliser plants, owned by major producer Acron, on February 25 has temporarily knocked out about 5% of the country’s overall production capacity and killed seven people.

Dorogobuzh accounts for 11% of Russia’s ammonium nitrate output and 9% of its NPK fertiliser production, a mixture of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.

ONE QUARTER OF GLOBAL TRADE BY 2030

Russia, also the world’s top wheat exporter, introduced fertiliser export restrictions in 2021 to ensure sufficient supply on the domestic market.

Andrey Guryev, head of the industry lobby, estimated the gap between lower domestic and higher export prices at about 15% during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in 2025.

He also told Putin that Russia is aiming to capture one-quarter of global fertiliser trade by 2030.

Russian fertiliser producers have been spared Ukraine-related Western sanctions in order to ensure global food security, but face payment and logistical difficulties related to sanctions.

Brazil, India and China are the biggest buyers of Russian fertilizers, and it also exports to the U.S.

Shares in two of Russia’s publicly traded producers, Acron and PhosAgro, have risen modestly, by 3% and 4%, respectively, on the Moscow Exchange since the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28.

“A shortage of phosphate fertilisers, amid China’s export restrictions, the shutdown of sulphur production in Qatar, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is a powerful driver for price increases in the market,” T-Bank analysts said in a research note.

“Against this backdrop, PhosAgro, as one of the key global suppliers, could strengthen significantly.”

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Trades gain pace; geopolitical tensions may boost demand from Brazil

Soybean trading has started to pick up in Brazil. Although this is a seasonal pattern, trade with countries that previously showed low demand has increased.

Brazil concentrates most of global demand at this point of the season (41.7% of the 2025/26 crop had been harvested until late February, according to Conab). Moreover, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could redirect other buyers to Brazil, which would boost national exports. It is worth noting that the USDA estimates that Brazil is likely to account for 61% of global demand.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route for oil shipments, has raised speculations about higher oil prices and, consequently, higher freight rates. It is worth noting that freight prices have already been increasing in Brazil in this period due to the demand linked to the soy harvest and the intensification of shipments.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 1.2% from Feb. 26 to March 5, to close at BRL 121.80 per 60-kg bag on March 5. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) moved up 2.2% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 129.54 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar closed at BRL 5.282 on March 5, for an increase of 2.7% against that verified on February 26.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Price Index stays above BRL 70/bag on tight supply

Cepea, 6 – Corn prices have increased for the fifth week in a row in Campinas (São Paulo), supported by seller resistance and strong demand. From February 26 to March 5, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 1.4%, to close at BRL 70.24 per 60-kg bag on March 5. It is worth noting that the Index had not closed above BRL 70/bag since December 2025.

Producers have been prioritizing summer crop harvest and second crop sowing activities. Thus, they have closed only a few deals. Consumers, in turn, are seeking to replenish inventories.

Most significant price rises have been observed in Triângulo Mineiro (Minas Gerais state), Rio Verde (Goiás) and Sorriso (Mato Grosso), by 3%, 1.8% and 0.9%, respectively, between February 26 and March 5. In Southern Brazil, on the other hand, quotations are moving down. In Santa Rosa (Rio Grande do Sul state), for instance, values dropped 1.2% in the same comparison.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values upped 1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between Feb. 26 and March 5.

CROPS – Planting activities of the second crop hit 64.9% of the area in Brazil up to February 28, while the summer crop harvest reached 24.9% of the total – data from Conab.

In Mato Grosso, second crop sowing activities had totaled 81.93% of the area up to February 27, below the 84.95% verified in the same period last year (data from Imea). Concerning Mato Grosso do Sul, activities hit 45.8% until Feb. 27 – data from Famasul. In Paraná, the second crop planted area reached 62% until March 2, according to Seab/Deral.

In regard of the summer crop, 55% of crops in Paraná had been harvested up to March 2 – data from Seab/Deral. In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater indicates that harvesting activities reached 64% of the area until March 5. In Santa Catarina, the percentage is at 28% (Conab).

 

Indonesia to file suspension of concessions against EU on palm oil dispute in WTO

Indonesia’s trade ministry said on Saturday that the government will file a suspension-of-concessions request against the European Union at the World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) dispute settlement body, citing the block’s failure to meet a WTO ruling in a palm oil case.

Here are the details:

• “This step is taken after the EU could not meet the deadline to adjust its policy or was not fully compliant with the ruling and recommendation of the palm oil dispute settlement body,” Trade Minister Budi Santoso said in a statement.
• The suspension of concession will be focused on trade in goods, Budi said, adding that the government has not ruled out concession suspension in other sectors.
• “We will ensure that the losses are thoroughly calculated and the cases are handled effectively, while maintaining bilateral relations with the EU,” Budi said.
• In 2025, a WTO panel found largely in favour of the EU in a case brought by Indonesia against the bloc’s restrictions on palm oil-based biofuel.
• The panel ruled that palm oil-based diesel would not be considered a biofuel and its use in transport fuel would effectively be phased out between 2023 and 2030. However, the panel did find fault in the way the EU had prepared, published and administered its measures.

 

ICE Ends Individual Notices on Daily Price Limit Changes for Cotton, Orange Juice Futures

EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, EXCHANGE WILL DISCONTINUE ISSUING INDIVIDUAL EXCHANGE NOTICES ANNOUNCING CHANGES TO DAILY PRICE LIMITS FOR COTTON NO. 2 AND FROZEN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE FUTURES CONTRACTS

 

BRAZIL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-MARCH, WHILE ARGENTINA RAINS WILL MODERATE

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (Brazil flooding)

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 10 days, low after that due to uncertainty from Argentina into Southern Brazil.

Model Change (from previous update): Drier in Southern Brazil, wetter to the north.

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

Argentina/Paraguay

• Widespread cool temperatures (2-4 °C below normal) will dominate across both countries throughout the next two weeks, peaking in the 11-15 day period.
• 15-day rainfall totals will average out near normal in most areas.
• Weather is likely to trend hotter/drier toward late March.
• Upcoming cool temperatures and near normal rainfall will be favorable for late soybean development in Argentina and should not impede crop progress in Paraguay.

Brazil

• Temperatures through 5 days will be 1-2 °C warmer than normal in Central-West and Southeast Brazil, while the Northeast region will be comparably cooler than normal.
• Temperatures will remain moderate through the 6-15 day outlook in a progressive weather pattern, as all areas will oscillate above/below normal.
• 15-day rainfall totals will be 50-150 mm (~2-6 in) wetter than normal along a zone from Mato Grosso do Sul through Minas Gerais and some surrounding areas, with the greatest flooding risks in Sao Paulo.
• South Brazil will up to 25 mm (~1 in) drier than normal through the next couple weeks.
• Risks for hot/dry weather will increase over the South region by late March, but near to above normal rainfall should persist across the rest of the country.
• Flooding in the forecast will elevate downside risks to coffee/sugarcane, while crops elsewhere should fare better from moderate weather.

Weather discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation is likely to develop into a Phase 8 event toward late March. This will support the potential for hot/dry conditions from Argentina into South Brazil by that time, with cool/wet weather to the north.

 

 

 

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