Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices were higher again early Tuesday, with April contract reaching to new contract highs as the conflict in the Middle East continued to drive headlines. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a fourth day. Iran’s response to the US/Israeli attacks may have seemed more robust than some had hoped. A fuel tank at Oman’s Duqm commercial port was hit; fire broke out at the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah, one of the key regional oil hubs; and loadings of Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil at Turkey’s Ceyhan port have been stopped. Supertanker costs in the Middle East have hit all-time highs, and insurers are canceling coverage. The timeline of the conflict seemed to extend on Monday after President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave open-ended answers when asked how long it would last. As expected, interruptions in Mideast supply are reaching into east Asia, with reports of at least two Chinese refiners reducing operations and bringing forward maintenance schedules.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were sharply higher in reaction to the Mideast war on Tuesday, with ULSD once again reacting more dramatically than gasoline. US Gasoline stocks are near record levels. Distillate stocks are not. April RBOB pushed through Monday’s high to new contract highs early Tuesday.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas was higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, as the Mideast war is affected global supply of LNG. Qatar Energy is completely offline, and they represent about 20% of global production. India has begun rationing natural gas. Other nations in Asia have said they would look to the spot market to replace supplies, and others have activated emergency plans and were prepared to step up production
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