Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
Slightly busier schedule has US Consumer Confidence, numerous Fed speakers and tonight’s State of the Union address as its highlights; weak French Business Confidence, UK CBI Retailing and Mexico CPI, earnings from Home Depot and HP also due.
- US Consumer Confidence: modest rebound seen after steep January fall, but risks from continued cost of living pressures and concern over politics
- Japan: latest reports suggest Takaichi and Katayama implicitly greenlighting further JPY weakness
EVENTS PREVIEW
While there is rather more ‘meat on the bone’ of today’s schedule, with China’s as expected no change on its LPR rates and weak French Business Confidence to digest ahead of the UK CBI Retailing survey and Mexico’s mid-month CPI, only US Consumer Confidence, the busy run of Fed speakers and BoE parliamentary testimony on monetary policy are likely to have any meaningful impact on markets ahead of tonight’s US State of the Union Address.
Corporate earnings highlights include Endesa, Home Depot, HP, Standard Chartered Bank, Telefonica and Woodside Energy, while Apple holds its AGM. It is worth noting that the sharp swing in USD positioning since the start of the year, when reported CFTC net position was a $3.0 bln net long to the most recent report showing a $20 Bln net short, implies the FX market is a lot more vulnerable to a USD short squeeze than a further sharp fall.
Meanwhile, reports overnight saying that PM Takaichi raised concerns about further rate hikes to BoJ governor Ueda at their meeting last week, while Finance Minister refused to comment on the suggestion that the US led JPY ‘rate checking’ in late January have unsurprisingly put renewed pressure on the JPY. Tactically, the new administration appears to be going down a dangerous path, tacitly greenlighting further JPY weakness, leaving the BoJ in a very awkward position in policy terms, and raising doubts about the overall direction of government policy.
** U.S.A. – Feb Consumer Confidence **
After an unexpectedly sharp 9.7 pt fall in January to a cyclical low of 84.5, paced by a slide in the Labor Differential (Jobs ‘Plentiful’ minus ‘Hard to Get’) to 3.1 from 8.4, Consumer Confidence is seen rebounding modestly to 87.0. Better official statistics on inflation and labour demand (though mostly in healthcare) are expected to pace this uptick, but this may simply not tally with households’ perceptions, above all in a K-shaped economy. As such, the combination of this and increasingly frequent and large revisions to the survey could result in an outlier relative to the consensus.
After an unexpectedly sharp 9.7 pt fall in January to a cyclical low of 84.5, paced by a slide in the Labor Differential (Jobs ‘Plentiful’ minus ‘Hard to Get’) to 3.1 from 8.4, Consumer Confidence is seen rebounding modestly to 87.0. Better official statistics on inflation and labour demand (though mostly in healthcare) are expected to pace this uptick, but this may simply not tally with households’ perceptions, above all in a K-shaped economy. As such, the combination of this and increasingly frequent and large revisions to the survey could result in an outlier relative to the consensus.
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